第2部分 成功交易的3个M

Buy low, sell high. Short high, cover low. Traders are like surfers, trying to catch good waves, only their beach is rocky, not sandy. Professionals wait for opportunities but amateurs jump in, driven by emotions - they keep buying strength and selling weakness, bleeding their equity into the markets. Buy low, sell high sounds like a simple rule, but greed and fear can override the best intentions.

低买高买，在高点做空，在低点回补。交易者就像冲浪者，都想找到最好的波浪，但是他们的沙滩全是石头，不是沙子。专业人士等机会，而业余选手由于情绪冲动，一头跳进——他们总是在最强的时候买，在最弱的时候卖，把资金献给了市场。低买高卖听起来是很简单的原则，但是贪婪和恐惧更能让人迷失。

A professional waits for familiar patterns to emerge from the market. He may notice a new trend with rising momentum, indicating higher prices ahead. Or he may detect the feebleness of momentum during a rally, indicating weakness. Once he recognizes a pattern, he puts on a trade. He has a clear notion of how he’ll get in, where he’ll take profits, and where he’ll accept a loss if the market turns against him.

专业人士等待市场出现相似的模式。也许他看见了新的趋势，有上涨动能，预示更高的价格。也许他发现了反弹的微弱，显示了弱势。当他看清了一个模式，他会交易。他很清楚如何进场，在哪里兑现利润，如果市场不好，他知道在何处接受亏损。

A trade is a bet on a price change, but there is a paradox. Each price reflects the latest consensus of value of market participants. Putting on a trade challenges that consensus. A buyer disagrees with the collective wisdom by saying the market is underpriced. A seller disagrees with the wisdom of the entire group, believing the market is overpriced. Both the buyer and the seller expect the consensus to change, but meanwhile they defy the market. That market includes some of the most brilliant minds and some of the deepest pockets on Earth. Arguing with this group is dangerous business, and it has to be done very cautiously.

交易者赌价格的变动，但自相矛盾。每个价格都显示了市场参与者对价值的一致认同。进行交易意味着挑战这个一致的认同。买家不会同意集体的智慧，他相信市场被低估了。卖家不同意集体的智慧，他相信市场被高估了。买家和卖家都希望这个一致的认同会改变，但同时，他们在对抗市场。市场包括了一些很出色的思想和很大的资金。和他们争论是危险的，所以要认真做事。

An intelligent trader looks for holes in the efficient market theory. He scans the market for brief periods of inefficiency. When the crowd is gripped by greed, the newcomers jump in and load up on stocks. When falling prices squeeze the fingers of thousands of buyers, they dump their holdings in a panic, disregarding fundamental values. Those episodes of emotional behavior dilute the cold efficiency of the market, creating opportunities for disciplined traders. When markets are calm and efficient, trading becomes a crapshoot, with commissions and slippage worsening the odds.

聪明的交易者寻找有效市场理论的漏洞。他扫描市场，寻找不有效的地方。当大众被贪婪俘虏时，新人会跳进来装满股票。当价格下跌，让上千的买家紧张时，他们在恐慌中抛股票，根本不管基本面。这些情绪紧张的行为稀释了市场有效理论，为有纪律的交易者制造了机会。当市场平静，有效率的时候，交易就变的有风险了，佣金和滑点亏损会让事情变的更糟。

Crowd mentality changes slowly, and price patterns recur, albeit with variations. Emotional swings provide trading opportunities, while efficient markets chop up and down, offering no edge to traders, only piling up their costs. Technical analysis tools will work for you only if you have the discipline to wait for patterns to emerge. Professionals trade only when markets offer them special advantages.

大众的智力变化慢，价格的模式会反复出现，但有所不同。情绪的波动提供了交易机会，然而有效市场则削弱各种机会，导致交易者占不到便宜，只会堆积成本。只要你有纪律，专心等待特定的模式出现，技术分析工具就会对你有用。专业人士在市场提供了特殊的优势时才进行交易。

According to chaos theory, many processes - the flow of water in a river, the movement of clouds in the sky, the changes of prices in the cotton markets - are chaotic, with transient islands of order, called fractals. Those fractals look similar from any distance, whether through a telescope or a microscope. The coast of Maine looks just as jagged from a space shuttle as it does when you drop down on your hands and knees and look at it through a magnifying glass. In most financial markets, the long-term weekly charts and the short-term 5-minute charts look so similar, you cannot tell them apart without markings. Engineers have realized that they can achieve better control over many processes if they accept them as chaotic and try to capitalize on temporary fractals, the islands of order. That’s exactly what a good trader does. He recognizes the market as chaotic and unpredictable much of the time, but expects to find islands of order. He trains himself to buy and sell without quibbling when he finds those patterns.

根据混沌理论，很多过程——河中的水流，天空中移动的云，棉花市场的价格变动——是混乱无序的，有时候会有短暂的有序，这叫分形。不管从多远来看，这些分形都很相似，无论是用望远镜，还是显微镜。如果你从航天飞机看，缅因州看样来像是突出的，当你爬下来用放大镜看，结果也一样。在大部分金融市场中，长期的周线图和短期的5分钟图看起来相似，如果没有标注，你根本分不出来。工程师觉得如果他们接受混乱无序的现实，并重点研究分形的有序，他们就能更好地控制很多环节。优秀的交易者也要这么做。他知道市场在大多时间是混乱无序的，也无法预测的，但是要等待有序的出现。要训练自己，当发现了特定的模式时，不要支支吾吾，要去行动。

Successful trading depends on the 3 M’s - Mind, Method, and Money. Beginners focus on analysis, but professionals operate in a three-dimensional space. They are aware of trading psychology - their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets. Each trader needs to have a method for choosing specific stocks, options, or futures as well as firm rules for pulling the trigger - deciding when to buy and sell. Money refers to how you manage your trading capital.

成功的交易需要3个M——思想，方法和资金管理。新手专注于分析，但是专业人士在3维空间操作。他们懂交易心理——他们自己的感觉和市场大众的感觉。每个交易者都需要有选择特定股票和期货的方法，这些原则要像扣扳机一样——决定何时买卖。资金管理就是如何管理自己的交易资金。

Mind, Method, Money - trading psychology, trading method, and money management - people sometimes ask me which of the three is more important. It is like asking which leg of a three-legged stool is the most important. Take them away one at a time and then try to sit down. In Part 2 we focus on those three foundations of market success.

思想，方法，资金管理——交易心理，交易方法和资金管理——有时有人问我哪个最重要。这等于问三脚椅的哪条腿最重要。拿走一条腿，再坐上去试试吧。在第2部分，我们重点谈成功交易的3个基础。

CHAPTER FOUR MIND - THE DISCIPLINED TRADER1