第03章 第一步

Trading lures us with its promise of freedom. If you know how to trade, you can live and work anywhere in the world, be independent from the routine, and not answer to anybody. Trading attracts people of above-average intelligence who enjoy games and aren’t afraid of risks. Before you rush into this exciting venture, keep in mind that in addition to your enthusiasm you will need to bring a sober understanding of the realities of trading.

交易可以帮助实现自由，所以它吸引了我们。如果你知道如何交易，你可以在全世界任何地方生活和工作，没有例行工作，不必理任何人。交易吸引了比较聪明的人，他们喜欢这个游戏，不怕风险。在你冒险之前，你要明白，除了激情，你还要透彻理解交易的现实。

Trading will stress your feelings. To survive and succeed, you will need to develop a sound trading psychology.

交易会让你沮丧。如果要生存，要成功，你需要形成有效的交易心理。

Trading will challenge your mind. To gain an edge in the markets, you will need to master good analytic methods.

交易会改变你的思想。要想在市场中获得优势，你需要掌握优秀的分析方法。

Trading will demand good mathematical skills. A math illiterate who can’t manage risks is guaranteed to bust out.

交易需要优秀的数学能力。一个数学盲如果不能管理好风险，肯定会被踢出局。

Trading psychology, technical analysis, money management - if you learn all three, you can make it in trading. But first, let us look at the external obstacles to your success.

交易心理、技术分析和资金管理——如果你都学会了，你就会成功。但是，让我们先看看成功的外部障碍。

The markets are set up to separate the maximum number of people from their money. Stealing is not permitted, but markets are heavily slanted in favor of insiders and against outsiders. Let us explore the barriers that prevent many traders from succeeding and try to lower them.

设置交易市场的目的就是掠夺大多数人的钱。偷是违法的，但是市场会帮助懂的人，并陷害不懂的人。让我们来寻找这些妨碍成功的路障，并尽量排除它们。

THE EXTERNAL BARRIERS TO SUCCESS

成功的外部障碍

An investor can start with practically nothing, buying a few thousand dollars worth of shares. If he buys and holds, his commissions and other expenses will be minor factors in his success or failure. Traders have a harder task. Seemingly trivial expenses can break them, and the smaller the account, the greater the danger. Transaction costs can raise an impassable barrier to winning.

一个投资者可以空手起家，买几千元的股票。如果他买入并持有，佣金和其它费用不会对他的成功或失败造成影响。交易者有更重的任务。似乎很小的费用都能摧毁他们，账户越小，风险越大。交易成本会成为取胜无法逾越的障碍。

Transaction costs?!

交易成本？！

Beginners hardly think of them, yet transaction costs are a leading cause of trader mortality. Adjusting your plans to reduce those costs gives you an advantage over the market crowd.

新手根本不会想到这个问题，但是交易成本是导致交易者阵亡的首要因素。改变计划，降低成本，你就比市场大众占优势了。

I have a friend whose 12-year-old daughter recently came up with a brilliant idea for a new business, which she called The Guinea Pig Factory. She ran off promotional flyers on her mom’s copy machine and stuffed them into neighbors’ mailboxes. Guinea pigs, popular among kids in her neighborhood, cost $6, but she could buy them at the central market for only $4. The girl dreamed of profits when her mother, who is a trader, asked how she was going to get from the Sydney suburb where they lived to the central market and back. Someone will give me a ride, answered the girl.

我有一个朋友，他12岁的女儿最近突然想到了一个做生意的好办法。她称作几内亚猪工厂。她用她妈妈的复印机印宣传单，并把宣传单塞进邻居的邮箱。几内亚猪在附近的小孩中很流行，成本6元，但是她可以在中心市场以4元的价格买到。这个女孩在梦想着自己的利润，她的妈妈是交易者，她妈问她，如何从它们住的悉尼郊区到中心市场，然后再回来呢。女孩说，有人会开车带我的。

A child may get a free ride, but the market will not give it to you. If you buy a stock at $4 and sell it at $6, you won’t make a $2 profit. A big chunk of it will go for transaction costs. Amateurs tend to ignore them, while professionals focus on them and do everything in their power to reduce them - unless they’re collecting them from you, in which case they try to blow them up. Beginners get into their Guinea Pig Factories and cannot understand why they keep buying at 4, selling at 6, and are still losing money.

一个小孩是有可能坐免费车的，但市场不会给你免费的东西。如果你4元买入一个股票，并6元卖出，你的利润不是2元。很大一部分成为交易成本。业余选手总是忽略交易成本，然而专业人士则非常关注交易成本，并尽力避免——除非他们想从你身上得到交易成本，他们才会喜欢交易成本的增加。新手开了几内亚猪工厂，搞不懂自己为何在4元买的，在6元卖，结果还是亏损。

A new trader is like a little lamb walking into a dark forest. He is likely to be killed, and his skin - his trading capital - divided three ways, between brokers, professional traders, and service providers. Each will try to grab a piece of that poor lamb’s skin. Don’t be that lamb - think of transaction costs. There are three kinds of them: commissions, slippage, and expenses.

一个新手交易者就像一只走进了黑暗森林的羔羊。他很可能被杀，他的皮肉——也就是交易资金——被3个人抢去了，经纪人，专业交易者和服务公司。每个人都想抓住羊肉。不要做那只羔羊——想想你的交易成本。一共有3种：佣金，滑点亏损，以及相关费用。

Commissions

Commissions may appear to be a minuscule expense. Most traders neglect them, but if you add them up, you’re likely to find that your broker ends up with much of your profit.

佣金看起来是很少的费用。很多交易把佣金忽略了，但是如果把佣金加起来，你会发现经纪人赚了你的很多钱。

A brokerage firm may charge about $20 to buy or sell up to 5,000 shares. If you have a $20,000 account and buy 200 shares of a $100 stock, the commission of $20 comes to one-tenth of one percent. When you sell those shares and pay another commission, the cost of brokerage rises to approximately two-tenths of one percent of your equity. Trade like that once a week, and at the end of the month your broker will have earned one percent of your account, regardless of whether you made money. Keep going like that for a year, and your commission cost will rise to 12% of your equity. That’s a lot of money. Professional money managers are happy with 25% annual returns, year after year. They could not generate them if they had to pay 12% annually in commissions.

经纪公司对于5000股股票交易收20元的手续费。如果你账户里有20000元，你买了200股价值100元的股票，20元的手续费就相当于1‰。当你卖掉股票的时候，又要交手续费，交给经纪公司的手续费相当于你资金的2‰。如果你每周这样交易一次，月底你会发现你的经纪人已经赚了你资金的1%，不管你是否赚钱。如果这样交易1年，你的佣金会成为你资金的12%。这是相当多的钱了。专业的基金经理对25%的年收益已经非常高兴了。如果要付12%的年佣金，他们肯定做不到25%的年收益。

But wait, it gets worse.

等等，还有更糟糕的。

Look at a small trader who can afford only 100 shares of a $20 stock. His purchase price is $2,000, but he pays the same $20 commission, which eats up a whopping 1 percent of his equity. When he closes that trade and pays another commission, he is 2 percent behind the game. If he trades like that once a week, by the end of the month his commissions will come to 10% of his account, more than 100% on annualized basis. The great George Soros averages 29% annual gain. He could have never accomplished that if he had to jump over a 100% commission barrier.

看看只买得起100股20元股票的小交易者。他的买价是2000元，但他同样要支付20元的手续费，把他资金的1%抽走了。当他平仓时，还要交一次手续费，2%没有了。如果他每周交易一次，月底时手续费会成为他资金的10%，一年下来手续费超过100%了。伟大的乔治·索罗斯平均一年的收益为29%。如果他的手续费是每年100%，他就别指望实现29%的年收益了。

The bigger your account, the smaller the percentage eaten by commissions and the lower your barrier to winning. Having a large account is a great advantage, but whatever your size, do not be hyperactive. Each trade and each seemingly cheap commission raise the barrier to your success. Design a system that doesn’t trade very often.

你的账户资金越多，你的手续费交的越少，你的胜率越高。资金多是个很大的优势，但无论你的仓位多大，不要过分交易。每笔交易和每笔看起来很便宜的手续费，都是你成功的障碍。设计一个并不需要多次交易的系统。

I’ve met futures traders who paid $80 roundtrip commissions to full-service brokers. That was the price of allegedly sage advice, but any disinterested professional will tell you that a futures trader who pays $80 roundtrip has no chance of winning. Why do people pay such exorbitant rates? Because the little lamb who ventures into a dark forest is so afraid of the big bad wolf, the professional trader, that he hires himself a protector to guide him, a full-service broker. Once you do the math, it becomes clear that you’re better off taking your chances on the wolf than signing up for a guaranteed skinning by your protector.

我见过一些期货交易者，他们给提供全面服务的经纪公司80元作为来回交易的手续费。他们说这是明智的建议，但是任何专业人士都会告诉你，付80元包来回交易根本没有赚钱的机会。为什么会有人付这么离谱的手续费呢？因为小羔羊进入森林以后，它害怕大灰狼，也就是专业人士，所以他请人保护他，也就是提供全面服务的经纪公司。一旦你自己算算，就很明显，你宁愿把自己交给大灰狼，也不能让别人用保护你的方式扒你的皮。

There are full-service brokers whose advice is worth the money. They bring good tips, get good fills, and their commissions are not exorbitant. The catch is that they only accept very large accounts that generate a high volume of business. Bring them a million-dollar account with a history of active trading, and you may get their attention.

有些提供全面服务的经纪公司的建议是值钱的。他们提供好消息，他们的手续费也不过分。关键是他们只接受大资金，因为大资金才能带来大生意。如果他们知道你有100万的账户，过去还交易活跃，他们一定喜欢。

If you have an account in five or six figures and trade only a couple of times a week, do not waste your time and money looking for false security of an expensive broker. Get a cheap, reliable, no-frills broker that you can easily reach via the Internet or on the phone - and start looking for good trades.

如果你的账户资金有5位数或6位数，每周交易几次，还是不要浪费时间和金钱在昂贵的经纪公司那里，他们的保障是虚假的。去找一个便宜的，可靠的，不提供不必要服务的公司，你通过互联网或者电话联系就行了——开始要找到好的交易机会。

Slippage

滑点亏损

Slippage is the difference between the price at the time you placed your order and the price at which that order got filled. You may place an order to buy when a guinea pig is trading at $4, but your bill comes to $4.25. How come? Then the guinea pig goes up to $6 and you place an order to sell at the market, only to receive $5.75. Why? In our daily lives we are used to paying posted prices. Here, at the grown-up Guinea Pig Factory, they clip you for a quarter buying and another selling. It could get worse. Those quarters and halves can add up to a small fortune for a moderately active trader. Who gets that money? Slippage is one of the key sources of income for market professionals, which is why they tend to be very hush-hush about it.

滑点就是你下单的价格和真正成交的价格之间的价差。你可能下单以4元的价格买几内亚猪，但是你的成交记录显示是4.25元。怎么会这样呢？然后几内亚猪涨到6元，你下单卖出，结果成交价是5.75元。为什么？在日常生活中，我们都是按照标价付款。在几内亚猪工厂，你在买卖的时候都被克扣了。甚至会更糟。对于一个交易活跃的交易者来说，这些被克扣的钱加起来数字会不小的。谁拿了这些钱？对于专业人士来说，滑点是他们赚钱的秘密，他们会严守这个秘密。

No stock, future, or option has a set price, but it does have two rapidly changing prices - a bid and an ask. A bid is what a buyer is offering to pay, whereas an ask is what a seller is asking. A professional is happy to accommodate an eager buyer, selling to him instantly, on the spot - at a price slightly higher than the latest trade in that market. A greedy trader who’s afraid that the bullish train is leaving the station overpays a pro who lets him have his stock right away. That pro offers a similar service to sellers. If you want to sell without waiting, afraid that prices may collapse, a professional will buy from you on the spot - at a price slightly lower than the latest trade in that market. Anxious sellers accept ridiculously low prices. Slippage depends on the emotional state of market participants.

股票、期货或者期权都没有固定的价格，但是他们有2个快速变动的价格——市场买入价和市场卖出价。市场买入价就是一个买家报价买入，市场卖出价是一个卖家报价卖出。专业人士喜欢满足焦急的买家，以比市场价高点的价格卖给他。贪婪的交易者担心市场要涨了，立刻用高价从专业人士那里买入股票。这个专业人士用同样的方法对付卖家。如果你迫不及待地要卖——以比市场要低点的价格卖出。焦急的卖家愿意接受过分低的低价。滑点就是由市场参与者的情绪造成的。

The professional who sells to buyers and buys from sellers is not a social worker. He is running a business, not a charitable operation. Slippage is the price he charges for rapid action. He has paid a high price for his spot at the crossroads of buy and sell orders, buying or leasing an exchange seat or installing expensive equipment.

专业人士卖给买家，又从卖家手里买，他可不是义工。他在做生意，也不是慈善事业。在快速波动的市场中赚滑点价差。专业人士也需要很高的成本在市场的买单和卖单中找机会，他需要买或租用交易席位，还要安装昂贵的设备。

Some orders are slippage-proof, while others invite slippage. The three most popular types of orders are limit, market, and stop. A limit order specifies the price; that is, “Buy 100 shares of Guinea Pig Factory at $4.” If the market is quiet and you’re willing to wait, you’ll get that price. If GPF dips below $4 by the time your order hits the market, you may get it a little cheaper, but don’t count on it. If the market rises above $4, your limit order will not be filled. A limit order lets you control the price at which you buy or sell, but doesn’t guarantee you a fill.

有些订单是不会滑点的，有些订单故意要滑点。3个典型的订单类型分别是限价单，市价单和止损单。限价单限制了价格，也就是，“以4元的价格买入100股几内亚猪工厂。”如果市场很平静，你要等待，你会等到那个价格的。如果你下单时，正好股价跌到4元以下，你就可以以更低的价格买入，但不要指望这样。如果市场涨到4元以上，你的限价单就不会成交。限价单的目的是控制你想买或卖的价格，但不保证一定能成交。

A market order lets you buy or sell immediately, at whatever price you can get at the moment. The execution is guaranteed, but not the price. If you want to buy or sell right away, this very moment, you cannot expect to get the best price - you give up control and suffer slippage. Market orders placed by anxious traders are the bread and butter of the pros.

市价单能让你快速买或卖，也就是不管什么价，立刻成交。一定会成交，但价格是即时成交价。如果你想立刻买或卖，你很难得到最好的价格——放弃控制就意味着承受滑点亏损。焦急的交易者下的市价单成为专业人士的面包和奶酪。

A stop order becomes a market order when the market touches that level. Suppose you buy 100 shares of Guinea Pig Factory at $4.25, expect it to rise to $7, but protect your position with a stop at $3.75. If the price slides to $3.75, your stop becomes a market order, executed as soon as possible. You’ll get out, but expect to suffer slippage in a fast-moving market.

当市场达到你的价格时，止损单就成为市价单。假如你在4.25元买了100股几内亚猪工厂，希望涨到7元，在3.75元设置止损。如果价格跌到3.75元，你的止损单生效，立刻成为市价单，就立刻成交了（张轶注：中国没有，只有期货可以，但中国的期货也没止损功能）。你会出场，但是，在快速波动的市场，你会受到滑点亏损。

You can choose what you want to control when you place an order - the price or the time. A limit order lets you control the price, with no assurance of a fill. When you place a market order, a fill is assured, but not the price. A calm and patient trader prefers to use limit orders, since those who use market orders keep losing slivers of capital in slippage.

当你下单的时候，你自己要清楚你要控制哪方面——价格或者时间。限价单能让你控制价格，但不能保证成交。如果你下市价单，能保证成交，但不保证价格。一个冷静，有耐心的交易者喜欢用限价单，因为那些喜欢用市价单的人经常发生滑点亏损。

Slippage tends to be a much bigger expense than commissions. I estimated the size of both in Trading for a Living and thought this was one of the most explosive parts of the book, but very few noticed. People in the grip of greed or fear want to trade at any price, rather than focus on their long-term financial interests. So much for the efficient market theory.

一般滑点亏损比手续费还严重。在《以交易为生》中，我估算了2者的亏损情况，我以为这是本书的爆炸点，但是似乎没几个人注意到。由于贪婪和恐惧的原因，人们喜欢立刻成交，而不是聚焦在长期的金融兴趣上。市场有效理论还是有道理啊。

There are day-trading firms promising to teach traders to take advantage of slippage by trading inside the bid-ask spreads. Their technology does not guarantee success, while commissions from active trading negate any advantage. People pay a lot of money for Level 2 quotes, but I haven’t noticed any great increase in performance among those who use them.

有些日内交易公司会承诺教交易者在市场报价中找优势。他们的技术不保证成功，而频繁的交易产生的手续费导致没有任何优势。人们花了很多钱买深度波动（张轶注：类似中国的topview），但我没看见他们交易水平有提高。

Getting into a trade is like jumping into a fast-moving river. The opportunity as well as the danger is in the water. You are safe standing on the bank and can control where and when to jump, but getting out of the water can be more tricky. You may see a spot where you want to get out - a profit target, where you can place a limit order. You may want to let the river carry you as long as the current allows, protecting your position with a trailing stop. That may increase your profits, but it also will increase slippage.

进行交易就像是跳进了河流湍急的河中。机会和危险都在水中。如果你站在岸上，你就能控制在那里跳，但是，从河里上来更需要技巧。也许，你会发现一个很好的出场点——你的利润目标价格，你可以下限价单。你也许希望河流能把你带到你想去的地方，最好用移动止损保护你的仓位。这么做也许会增加你的利润，但也会增加滑点亏损。

Limit orders work best for entering trades. You’ll miss a trade once in a while, but there will be many others. That river has been flowing for hundreds of years. A serious trader uses limit orders to get in and to take profits, and protects his positions with stops. Anything we can do to reduce slippage goes directly to our bottom line and improves our odds of long-term success.

限价单最好。也许有时候会失去机会，但还有很多其它的机会。那条河已经流了几百年了。认真的交易者利用限价单进场并兑现利润，利用止损单保护他的仓位。我们要尽量避免滑点的亏损，尽量提高我们的长期成功机会。

Expenses

其它费用

Some expenses are unavoidable, especially in the beginning - you’ll have to buy a few books, download trading software, sign up with a data service, and so on. It is important to keep your expenses as low as possible. Amateurs have a charming habit of paying for their trading-related expenses, such as computers, subscriptions, and advisory services, with credit cards, without taking money out of their trading accounts. That protects them from seeing the true rate at which they are going downhill.

有些费用无法避免，尤其是在一开始——你要去买些书，下载交易软件，和波动软件公司签合同等等。尽量把费用降到最低，这个很重要。业余选手特别喜欢为交易花钱，比如电脑，注册，投资报告，他们用信用卡，不是用账户里面的钱。如果这么做，他们根本不知道他们亏损的速度。

Good traders add to profitable positions and reduce the size of their trades during losing streaks. We can apply the same sound principle to expenditures. Losers like to throw money at problems, while winners invest a fraction of their profits in their operations. Successful traders treat themselves to a new computer or software package only after they have enough profit to pay for it.

优秀的交易者在赚钱的仓位上加仓，在亏钱的仓位上减仓。在费用上我们也要用这么好的原则。输家喜欢用钱解决问题，而赢家投资很少的利润去解决问题。成功的交易者只有在赚了钱以后才会花钱去买电脑和软件。

Even the best tools can blow you out of the water. At a recent seminar in Frankfurt, a trader was excited about a powerful analytic package for which he was going to sign up the following week. It cost 2,000 marks a month (almost $1,000), but it was going to give him a tremendous analytic advantage. “How much money do you have in your trading account?”

I asked. 50,000 marks. “Then you can’t afford it. This software will cost you 24,000 marks a year, and you’ll have to generate almost 50% profit simply to pay for your signals. No matter how good the software, at this rate you’ll lose money. Look for a cheaper package, something that’ll cost no more than 1,000 marks per year, or about 2% of your account.”

即使是最好的工具也会让你出局。最近，在法兰克福的研讨会上，有个交易者说他发现了一个非常好的分析软件，他下周就要去买。每个月的使用费是2000马克（接近1000美元），但是可以带给他巨大的分析优势。“你的资金账户有多少钱？”我问他。50000马克。“如此说来你买不起这个软件，这个软件1年要花费你24000马克，你要赚50%才买得起这个软件。不管这个软件有多好，赚50%还是很难的，最终你是亏钱的。建议你买便宜的软件，最好每年的费用不超过1000马克，或者不超过你账户的2%。”

Institutional traders get support from their managers, peers, and staff, but private traders tend to feel lonely and isolated. Vendors prey on them by promising to help lead them out of the wilderness. The more overloaded you feel, the more likely you are to listen to vendors. Nine out of ten professionals in any field, be they lawyers, auto mechanics, or doctors, are not good enough. You don’t trust an average auto mechanic or a doctor, but rather ask for referrals from friends you respect. Most private traders do not know who to ask and respond to advisors with the loudest advertisements, who are rarely the best trading experts.

作为机构交易者，他们的经理，同事和员工会帮助他们，但是作为个人交易者，则会感到孤独，与世隔绝。一些商业公司会承诺帮助他们走出困境，其实是在赚他们的钱。你越是感觉到困惑，你越是相信这些商业公司。任何行业，无论是律师，汽车机械师，还是医生，10分之9的人都不优秀。你不能相信水平一般的汽车机械师或医生，要从你尊敬的朋友那里得到建议。大部分交易者不知道问谁，就去问天天做广告的商业顾问，这些顾问很少是最好的专业交易者。

An advisor I’ve known for years was recently indicted by the Feds for stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from Japanese clients. Prior to that, he cultivated a reputation as one of the most prominent market experts in the United States, constantly quoted by the media. We were introduced at a conference, where people paid thousands of dollars to listen to him. He asked me what I thought of his presentation, and I said it sounded amazingly interesting but I could not understand much of it. “That’s the point,”

he beamed. “If my clients believe I know something they don’t, I’ve got them for life!” I knew right away the man was dishonest, and was surprised only by the size of his loot.

有一个投资顾问，我认识他很多年了。最近美联储开始起诉他，说他偷了日本客户的好几个亿美元。在这之前，他已经为自己树立了名声，成为美国最出色的市场专家，媒体经常报道他。我是在一个投资会议上认识他的，当时人们要花几千元听他讲课。他问我对他的讲课内容有什么感觉，我说，听起来超级有意思，但很多东西我都听不懂。“这就是关键所在，”他很高兴。“只要客户相信我懂的比他们多，我就永远控制了他们的生活！”我立刻明白了这个人不诚实，只是很吃惊他能骗这么多人。

Some trading advice can be amazingly good. A few dollars will buy you a book that holds the experience of a lifetime. A few hundred dollars will get you a subscription to a newsletter with original and helpful advice. But gems are few and far between, while legions of hucksters prey on insecure traders. I have two rules for filtering out the worst offenders: avoid services you don’t understand and avoid expensive services.

有些交易建议确实超级好。几元钱买的书包含了一辈子的经验。几百元定一份投资报告邮件，会有很多原创的有用的建议。但是宝石不但少，还难找。大部分情况下都是一些喜欢做广告的生意人在寻找猎物——没有经验的交易者。我有2个原则筛除最坏的广告商：避免你不懂的服务，避免昂贵的服务。

If you don’t understand an advisor, stay away from him. Trading attracts people of above-average intelligence, which probably applies to you. If you cannot understand something after an honest effort, it’s probably because the other guy is giving you double-talk. When it comes to books, I avoid those written in bad English. Language is a reflection of thought, and if a guy cannot write clearly, his thinking probably isn’t too clear either. I also avoid books with no bibliography. We all borrow from our predecessors, and an author who doesn’t acknowledge his debts is either arrogant, lazy, or both. Those are terrible traits in a trader, and if he writes like that, I don’t want his advice. And of course, I have zero respect for thieves. Book titles are not copyrighted, and in recent years a bunch of people have lifted the title of my first book, Trading for a Living, usually with slight variations. I am sure that some clown will steal the title of the book you’re now reading. Will you want to learn from a poacher who cannot think for himself?

如果你不了解一个投资顾问，最好远离他。交易吸引比较聪明的人，也许你也是。如果你很认真地学习，却不明白对方的话，那很可能是因为对方在说模棱两可的欺人之谈。谈到书，我就避免看英语写的很差的书。语言反映了思想，如果一个人写不好，很可能是因为他想不清楚。我同样不看没有列参考书目的书。我们都从前辈那里借知识，一个作者如果不承认他借了别人的知识，他要么是傲慢，要么是偷懒，要么两者间而有之。这些都是交易者的缺点，如果谁这么写书，我是不会听他的建议的。当然了，我也鄙视抄书行为。书名不受版权保护，最近几年，很多人用我的书名《以交易为生》，通常只是少许修改。我相信有些小丑会偷你正在看的书名。你会相信一个没有自我的小偷吗？

My second rule is to avoid very expensive services, be they books, advisory letters, or seminars. A $200 newsletter is likely to be a better value than a $2,000 one, and a $500 seminar a better value than a $5,000 one. Merchants of super-expensive products sell an implicit promise of “the keys to the kingdom.” Their customers are usually desperate to dig out from under abysmal losses. Football players call this a “Hail Mary”

play - when a losing team in the last seconds of the game desperately tosses the ball forward, hoping to score. They’ve already lost the game on skill, and now try to come back in a single desperate gamble. When a trader who lost more than half of his account buys a $3,000 trading system, he is doing the same thing.

我的第2个原则就是避免昂贵的服务，无论是书，投资顾问报告或者是研讨会。200元的投资报告邮件比2000元的还要好，500元的研讨会比5000元的研讨会好。生意人卖的产品超级贵，似乎暗示是“通向王国的钥匙”。他们的客户一般都想从无底的亏损中解放出来。橄榄球中这叫“绝望一击”——输球的一方在最后几秒钟绝望地掷球，希望得分。他们已经由于技术不行而失败，希望最后一次赌博能扭转局面。当一个交易者亏掉一半的钱，然后去买3000元的交易系统，他在做同样的事。

Helpful advisors tend to be modest, and price their services accordingly. An obscene price is a marketing gimmick that conveys a subliminal message that the service is magic. There is no magic - no one can deliver on that promise. A relatively inexpensive service is a bargain when it’s good, and a cheap loss when it isn’t.

能起帮助左右的投资顾问一般比较谦逊，他们的收费比较客观。一个收费昂贵的产品是一些人用的商业伎俩，故意暗示你这个服务有魔力。其实没有魔力——没人能保证魔力。一个相对便宜的服务才是划算的，就算不好，损失也不大。

Someone once asked Sigmund Freud what he thought the best attitude for a patient was. “Benign skepticism,” answered the great psychiatrist, and that’s good advice for financial traders. Maintain an attitude of healthy skepticism. If you find something you don’t understand, try it again, and if you still do not get it, it is probably not worth having. Run, do not walk, from those who offer to sell you the keys to the kingdom. Keep your expenses low and remember, any information you receive becomes valuable to you only after you’ve tested it on your data, making it your own.

有人曾经问西格蒙德·弗洛伊德，对待病人的最好态度是什么。“良性的怀疑主义，”伟大的心理学家说，对于金融交易者也是同理。要保持良性的怀疑主义。如果你发现了一些你不明白的地方，继续研究，如果你还不明白，可能是因为那根本不值得你研究。如果有人卖给你通向王国的钥匙，赶快跑开，不是走开。要保证低的费用，记住，只有你亲自验证过的信息才是有价值的信息。

GETTING YOUR GEAR

拿起你的装备

A successful trader is like a fish swimming upstream, against the current. Commissions, slippage, and expenses keep pushing you back. You must make enough money to overshoot these three barriers before making a dime.

一个成功的交易者就像是逆流而上的鱼。佣金，滑点亏损和其它费用都会阻止你向前。在赚钱之前，你必须努力摆脱这3个障碍。

There is no shame in deciding trading is too hard and walking away, just as there is no shame in being unable to dance or play the piano. Many beginners jump in without thinking and get financially and emotionally hurt. It is a great game, but if you leave, better do it early.

如果你觉得交易太难了，你不干了，这并不丑。不会跳舞，不会弹钢琴，这都不丑。很多新手想都不想，一头跳进，结果金钱亏损，身心受伤。这是个伟大的游戏，如果你想放弃，最好早点放弃。

If you decide to trade, read on, because in the following sections we will look into psychology, trading tactics, and money management. But first, we must talk about the practical aspects of trading - how to open an account, choose a computer, and start collecting data.

如果你决定交易，继续读下去，因为下面我们会谈心理，交易战术和资金管理。首先，我们必须谈论交易的实际情况——如何开户，选择电脑，收集数据。

Size Matters

仓位很重要

Making or losing money in the market depends in part on how much you put into your account. Two people can take identical trades, but one will grow equity, while the other will bust out. How could this be if they buy and sell the same quantity of the same stock at the same time?

赚钱或亏钱还取决于账户的资金大小。2个人进行相同的交易，1个账户会增长，1个会亏损出局。如果他们买和卖的完全一样，数量也一样，怎么结果会不同呢？

Suppose we meet and decide to pass an hour tossing a coin, playing heads-or-tails - heads you win, tails you lose. Each of us will bring $5 to the game and bet 25 cents on each flip. As long as we use a fair coin, by the end of the hour we will be about even, each with about $5.

假如我们见面了，我们用1个小时的时间猜硬币，猜正面或反面——正面算你赢，反面算我赢。每次我们压5元钱，赌25分钱。只要硬币没做假，1个小时后，我们的结果差不多，都是5元左右。

What happens if we play the same game and use the same coin, only now you start with $5, while I bring only $1? You’ll probably end up taking my money. You are likely to win because your capital provides greater staying power. It would take a string of 20 losses to bankrupt you, while for me a string of just 4 losses would be fatal. Four losses in a row are much more likely than 20. The trouble with a small account is that it has no reserves to survive even a short run of losing trades. Winning trades are always interlaced with losers, and a short losing streak wipes out small traders.

如果还是玩相同的游戏，用相同的硬币，只是你以5元开始，我以1元开始，结果会如何？很可能你赢了我的钱。你可能会赢是因为你的资金能保证你坚持的时间长。你连续输20次才会把钱输光，而我，连续输4次就完蛋了。我连续输4次相当于你连续输20次。小账户的麻烦就是没有足够的储备保证连续的小亏损。赚钱的交易总是伴随着亏钱的交易，一连串的小亏损会把小账户摧毁。

Most beginners start out with too little money. There is plenty of noise in the markets - random moves that defy trading systems. A small trader who runs into a noisy period has no safety cushion. His long-term analysis may be brilliant, but the market will do him in, because he does not have the staying power to ride out a losing streak.

大部分新手刚开始时的钱很少。市场中的噪音特别多——很多随即的波动都会违反交易系统。一个小交易者，如果正好进入噪音时期，他是没有安全保证的。也许他的长期分析是对的，但是市场会陷害他，因为他没有办法熬过一连串的亏损。

Back in 1980, as a greenhorn amateur, I walked into a Chase bank around the corner and drew a $5,000 cash advance against my credit card. I needed that princely sum to meet a margin call in my depleted trading account. A beady-eyed cashier called the manager, who demanded my thumbprint on the receipt. The transaction felt dirty, but I got the money - which I proceeded to lose within a few months. My system was correct, but the market noise was killing me. It wasn’t until I got my trading account into a comfortable high five figures that I started making money. I wish someone had explained the concept of size to me in those days.

回到80年代，作为一个新手，我用信用卡在街角的大通银行体现5000元。我要把这些珍贵的钱转到我空空的交易账户中做保证金交易。眼尖的营业员打电话给经理，经理要求我在收据上按手印。整个过程感觉不舒服，好像犯罪一样，但是我拿到了钱——这些钱后来我用几个月的时间都亏掉了。我的系统很正确，但是市场的噪音害了我。直到我把账户的钱增加到5位数，我才开始赚钱。我真希望过去有人能告诉我仓位的概念啊。

Trading a small account is like flying an airplane at treetop level. You have no room to maneuver, no time to think. The slightest slip of attention, a piece of bad luck, a freaky branch sticking out into the air - you crash and burn. The higher you fly, the more time you have to find your way out of trouble. Flying at a low altitude is tough enough for experts, but deadly for beginners. A trader needs to gain altitude, get more equity, and buy some space for maneuvers.

用小账户交易就像是开飞机在树那么高的低空飞行。你没有回旋的空间，没有思考的时间。只要有一点点分心，有点倒霉，碰到树枝——你就会坠毁。你飞的越高，你就会有更多的时间来解决问题。在低空飞行对专业人士来说都很困难，对新手则是致命的。交易者需要高度，需要更多的资金，以此换来更多的回旋余地。

A person with a large account who bets a small fraction on any given trade can stay calm. A person with a small account grows tense knowing that any single trade can either boost or damage his account. As the stress rises, the capacity to reason goes down.

如果账户很大，一个人可以用比较少的资金去赌，这样他可以保持冷静。如果一个人的账户很小，他就会紧张，因为一次交易可能会获利丰富，也可能会摧毁他的账户。当他不断紧张时，他的分析能力会下降。

I saw the best example of how money can twist a player’s mind while teaching my oldest daughter to play backgammon. She was about eight at the time but very determined and bright. After a few months of practice she began beating me. Then I suggested we play for money - a penny a point, which in our scoring meant a maximum of 32 cents per game. She kept beating me, and I kept raising the stakes. By the time we reached 10 cents a point she started losing and soon gave back every last penny. Why could she beat me playing for little or no money but lost when the stakes increased? Because for me $3.20 was pocket change, but for the kid it was real money. Thinking about it made her a little more tense and she played slightly below her peak level - enough to fall behind. A trader with a small account is so preoccupied with money that it impairs his ability to think, play, and win.

当我教我的女儿玩西洋双陆棋时，我看见了金钱在如何扭曲一个人的思想。她当时只有8岁，但有决心，很聪明。几个月的练习之后，她能打败我了。然后我建议赌钱——1点1分钱，这意味着一局最多可以赢32分钱。她不断地赢我，我就不断地加注。当我们开始升级到1点1毛钱时，她开始亏钱了，很快她把赢到手的钱都亏光了。为什么在不赌钱，或者赌很少钱的时候，她可以赢我？为什么赌注增加了，她就亏钱呢？因为对我来说，3.20元只是个小钱，对小孩来说是大钱。正因为这是大钱，她在玩游戏的时候就会紧张，而且表现低于正常水平——当然会落后。一个交易者的账户很小的话，大脑也会被金钱占据，于是就影响了他的思考能力，交易能力和赚钱能力。

Other beginners bring too much money to the game, and that is not good either. A beginner with too much capital goes chasing after too many rabbits, becomes careless, loses track of his positions, and ends up losing money.

其他新手则拿了太多的钱来玩，那样也不好。如果一个新手的钱太多，他就会同时跟踪很多只兔子，就会变得没有聚焦，不能管理好仓位，最终还是亏钱。