第02章 交易什么市场？

Many people give little thought to life’s important decisions. They stumble into them by accidents of geography, time, or chance. Where to live, where to work, what markets to trade - many of us decide on a whim, without much serious thought. No wonder so many are dissatisfied with their lives. You can choose your markets on a whim or pause to think whether to trade stocks, futures, or options. Each of those has pluses as well as minuses.

很多人在人生大事上面很少思考。他会毫无准备地遇到了意外。在哪里生活，在哪里工作，交易什么市场——很多时候我们都是当机立断的，没有认真思考。难怪很多人都对自己的生活不满。你可以随便选择一个市场去交易，或者是停下来想想，股票、期货或期权，选择哪个呢。每个市场都要权衡利弊。

Successful traders are rational people. Winners trade solely for the money, while losers get their kicks out of the excitement of the game. Where those kicks land is another question.

成功的交易者都是理性的人。赢家仅仅为钱交易，输家在刺激中被踢出局。如何被踢是另外一个问题。

In choosing a market to trade, keep in mind that every trading vehicle, be it a stock, a future, or an option, has to meet two criteria: liquidity and volatility. Liquidity refers to the average daily volume, compared with that of other vehicles in its group. The higher the volume, the easier it is to get in and out. You can build a profitable position in a thin stock, only to get caught in the door at the exit and suffer slippage trying to take profits. Volatility is the extent of movement in your vehicle. The more it moves, the greater the trading opportunities. For example, stocks of many utility companies are very liquid but hard to trade because of low volatility - they tend to stay in narrow price ranges. Some low-volume, low-volatility stocks may be good investments for your long-term portfolio, but not for trading. Remember that not all markets are good for trading simply because you have a strong opinion on their future direction. They also must have good volume and move well.

当你选择市场时，请记住，无论是股票、期货还是期权，它们都要符合2个标准：流动性和波动性。流动性就是说和其它市场比，平均每天的成交量要大。成交量越大，进出越容易。你在一个股票上建仓，也许会因为滑点而无法出场。波动性就是波动的最大程度。波动越厉害，交易机会越好。比如说，如果公司的股票很少波动，那么就难交易——因为它们待在很窄的交易区间。一些低交易量，低波动性的股票是长线投资的好市场，但不适合交易。记住，不是每个市场因为你看好它的未来就会有好的交易机会。它们必须有交易量，还要有很好的波动。

STOCKS

A stock is a certificate of company ownership. If you buy 100 shares of a company that issued 100 million shares, you own one-millionth of that firm. You become a part owner of that business, and if other people want to own it, they will have to bid for your shares, lifting their value.

股票是拥有公司的证明。如果一个公司发行了1亿股股票，你买了100股，那么你拥有这个公司的100万分之1。你成为生意的拥有者，如果其他人也想拥有它，他们需要报更高的价格买入。

When people like the prospects of a business, they bid for its shares, pushing up prices. If they don’t like the outlook, they sell their stock, depressing prices. Public companies try to push up share prices because it makes it easier for them to float more equity or sell debt. The bonuses of top executives are often tied to stock prices.

如果人们看好这家企业的生意前景，他们就会竞价购买股票，把价格推高。如果他们不看好前景，他们就会卖出股票，价格下跌。上市公司尽力把股价推高，因为这样可以得到更多资金或减少负债。公司高层的奖金是和股价紧密联系的。

Fundamental values, especially earnings, drive prices in the long run, but John Maynard Keynes, the famous economist and a canny stock picker, retorted “In the long run we’re all dead.”

Markets are full of cats and dogs, stocks of unprofitable companies that at some point fly through the roof, defying gravity. Stocks of sexy new industries, such as biotechnology or the Internet, can fly on the expectations of future earnings rather than on any real operating records. Each dog has its day in the sun before reality sets in. Stocks of profitable, well-run companies may drift sideways to down. The market reflects the sum total of what every participant knows, thinks, or feels about a stock, and a declining price means large holders are selling. The essential rule in any market is “It’s OK to buy cheap, but not OK to buy down.”

Don’t buy a stock that’s trending lower, even if it looks like a bargain. If you like its fundamentals, use technical analysis to confirm that the trend is up.

内在价值，尤其是赢利能力，长期会推动股价上涨，但是著名的经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯，也是精明的炒股人士，他说：“长期而言，我们都是死的。”市场到处都是低价股票，不赚钱公司的股票有时会飞破屋顶。新兴行业的股票，比如生化或互联网的股票，是预期未来有巨大的收益而飞涨的，不是根据生产纪录涨的。在现实发生之前，任何股票都有表现的时候。赚钱的公司，运转良好的公司，他们的股票可能会横盘下跌。市场反映了每个参与者的知识、思想或者感觉，下跌的价格意味着大户在卖。任何市场的关键原则是：“买便宜的没问题，但不要买下跌的。” 即使看起来很便宜，也不要买下跌趋势的股票。如果你喜欢它的基本面，要利用技术分析来确认是否趋势向上。

Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors in America, is fond of saying that when you buy a stock, you become a partner of a manic-depressive fellow he calls Mr. Market. Each day Mr. Market runs up and offers either to buy you out of business or to sell you his share. Most of the time you should ignore him because the man is psychotic, but occasionally Mr. Market becomes so terribly depressed that he offers you his share for a song - and that’s when you should buy. At other times he becomes so manic that he offers an insane price for your share - and that’s when you should sell.

沃伦·巴菲特是美国最成功的投资者之一，他喜欢说，如果你买股票，你会认识一个性情变化无常的人，他自称市场先生，你会成为他的伙伴。市场先生每天出现，要么买你的股票，要么卖股票给你。一般情况下，你不要理他，因为他有神经质，但是偶尔市场先生会极度伤感，他让你去买他的股票——这时你应该买。其它时间他很疯狂，报价也很离谱——这时你应该卖。

This idea is brilliant in its simplicity, but hard to implement. Mr. Market sweeps most of us off our feet because his mood is so contagious. Most people want to sell when Mr. Market is depressed and buy when he is manic. We need to keep our sanity. We need objective criteria to decide how high is too high and how low is too low. Buffett makes his decisions on the basis of fundamental analysis and a fantastic gut feel. Traders can use technical analysis.

这个思想讲起来容易，做起来难。市场先生的情绪很具有传染性，所以他很容易把我们扫倒。当市场先生沮丧时，大多数人想卖；当市场先生疯狂时，大多数人想买。我们要保持清醒。我们要有一个客观的标准，以确定什么是太高，什么是太低。巴菲特利用基本面分析和自己神奇的内心感觉来做决定。交易者可以使用技术分析。

Speaking of gut feel, this is something that an investor or a trader may develop after years of successful experience. What beginners call gut feel is usually an urge to gamble, and I tell them they have no right to a gut feel.

谈到内心感觉，投资者和交易者需要经过多年成功的经验才会有内心感觉。新手的内心感觉就是赌博的冲动，我告诉他们，他们并没有权利谈自己的内心感觉。

What stocks should we trade? There are more than 10,000 of them in the United States, with even more abroad. Peter Lynch, a highly successful money manager, writes that he only buys stocks in companies that are so simple that an idiot could run them - because eventually one will. But Lynch is an investor, not a trader. Stocks of many companies with little fundamental value can embark on fantastic runs, making heaps of money for bullish traders before collapsing and making just as much money for the bears.

交易哪个股票呢？美国有10000多个股票，国外的更多。彼得·林奇是一个成功的基金经理，他说如果一个公司很简单，连傻瓜都能管理好，那么他就会买这个公司的股票——因为肯定有人能管理好。但林奇是投资者，不是交易者。很多公司，基本面不怎么好，但是股票能狂涨，股价崩溃前能让做多的交易者赚到很多钱，同样下跌时也能赚到这么多钱。

The stock market offers a wealth of choices, even after we cut out illiquid or flat stocks. You open a business newspaper, and stories of fantastic rallies and breathtaking declines leap at you from the pages. Should you jump on the bandwagon and trade stocks in the news? Have they moved too far from the gate? How do you find future leaders? Having to make so many choices stresses beginners. They spread themselves thin, jumping between stocks instead of focusing on a few and learning to trade them well. Newbies who cannot confidently trade a single stock go looking for scanning software that will let them track thousands.

即使不考虑那些不活跃的，交易平淡的股票，股市还是提供了致富的机会。你随便打开一张报纸，都会看到暴涨或者暴跌的股票故事。你会不会根据新闻的线索见风使舵来炒股呢？他们是不是已经跑的很远了？你如何发现未来的领头羊？太多的选择让新手感到压力。他们不知道重点研究几个股票，也不知道如何做好交易，他们什么都学，以致什么都没学好。新手对一个股票没有把握，他就寻找软件，让软件帮他同时跟踪几千个股票。

In addition to stocks, you can choose from their kissing cousins, mutual funds, called unit trusts in Europe. Long-term investors tend to put money into diversified funds which hold hundreds of stocks. Traders tend to focus on sector funds that let them trade specific sectors of the economy or entire countries. You pick a favorite sector or country and leave individual stock selection to the supposedly hot-shot analysts laboring at those funds.

除了股票，你还可以选择相关的共同基金。长线投资者喜欢把钱投入到各种各样的基金，因为基金会买几百种股票。交易者关注行业基金，因为他们可以针对经济的特点交易，也可以选择投资到某个国家的基金。你可以选择喜欢的经济面或者国家，让著名的基金分析师帮你选股票吧。

Choosing a winning stock or fund is a lot harder than listening to tips at a party or scanning headlines in a newspaper. A trader must develop a set of fundamental or technical search parameters, have the discipline to follow his system, and spread a safety net of money management under his account. We will delve into all three areas in Part 2.

选择一个赚钱的股票或基金比听消息要难多了，也比研究报纸难多了。交易者必须形成自己的一套基本面分析或技术面分析的参数，要遵守自己的系统，还要有出色的资金管理。我们会在第2部分详细讨论这些问题。

WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE? How to Buy Stocks by Louis Engel is the best introductory book for stock investors and traders. The author died years ago, but the publisher updates the book every few years - be sure to get the latest edition.

能告诉我如何开始吗？路易斯·安吉尔写的《股票指南》（张轶注：国内译名）是最好的入门书。作者在几年前死了，但是出版社会每过几年就更新一次——一定要买最新的版本。

FUTURES

Futures look dangerous at first - nine out of ten traders go bust in their first year. As you look closer, it becomes clear that the danger is not in futures but in the people who trade them. Futures offer traders some　of the best profit opportunities, but the dangers are commensurate with rewards. Futures make it easy for gamblers to shoot themselves in the foot, or higher. A trader with good money management skills needn’t fear futures.

期货一开始看起来很可怕——10个人里面有9个会在第1年被淘汰。当你看近点，你会发现期货并没有风险，而是交易的人有风险。对有些交易者来说，期货提供了最好的赚钱机会，但是风险总是伴随着回报。期货很容易让赌徒开枪打中自己的脚，又或者是打的太远。如果一个交易者有很好的资金管理，他不必害怕期货。

Futures used to be called commodities, the irreducible building blocks of the economy. Old-timers used to say that a commodity was something that hurt when you dropped it on your foot - gold, sugar, wheat, crude oil. In recent decades many financial instruments began to trade like commodities - currencies, bonds, stock indexes. The term futures includes traditional commodities along with new financial instruments.

过去期货叫商品，是经济中不可缺少的元素。过去人们喜欢说商品就是你掉在地上砸自己脚的东西——黄金，糖，小麦，原油。最近几十年，很多金融工具开始出现，它们类似商品——外汇，债券，股指期货。期货这个说法包括了传统的商品和新的金融工具。

A future is a contract to deliver or accept delivery of a specific quantity of a commodity by a certain date. A futures contract is binding on both buyer and seller. In options the buyer has the right but not an obligation to take delivery. If you buy a call or a put, you can walk away if you like. In futures, you have no such luxury. If the market goes against you, you have to add money to your margin or get out of your trade at a loss. Futures are stricter than options but are priced better for traders.

期货就是一个合约，这份合约规定在未来的确定日期交割确定数量的商品。一份期货合约同时绑定了买家和卖家。如果是期权，买家有权利接受交割，但不是义务。如果你买了看涨期权或者看跌期权，你也可以随时出场。但是期货不同。如果市场对你不利，你需要追加保证金，或者是止损出场。期货比期权严格，但是价格适合交易者。

Buying a stock makes you a part owner of a company. When you buy a futures contract you don’t own anything, but enter into a binding contract for a future purchase of merchandise, be it a carload of wheat or a sheaf of Treasury bonds. The person who sells you that contract assumes the obligation to deliver. The money you pay for a stock goes to the seller, but in futures your margin money stays with the broker as a security, ensuring you’ll accept delivery when your contract comes due. They used to call margin money honest money. While in stocks you pay interest for margin borrowing, in futures you can collect interest on your margin.

买入股票，你就成了一个公司的拥有者。当你买入期货合约时，你并不拥有什么，只是买了一个合约，合约规定未来的商品买卖，比如是一车小麦，或者是一些债券。卖给你的人有义务交割。买股票时，你的钱给了卖家。但是买期货时，你的保证金在经纪公司那里作为保证，以保证你的合约到期时，你会接受交割。他们喜欢说保证金是诚实的金钱。买股票时，如果你借用保证金，是要支付利息的，买期货时，你的保证金可以为你带来利息。

Each futures contract has a settlement date, with different dates selling for different prices. Some professionals analyze their differences to predict reversals. Most futures traders do not wait and close out their contracts early, settling profits and losses in cash. Still, the existence of a delivery date forces people to act, providing a useful reality check. A person may sit on a losing stock for ten years, deluding himself it is only a paper loss. In futures, reality, in the form of the settlement date, always intrudes on a daydreamer.

每份期货合约都有一个确定的日期，不同的日期代表不同的价格。有些专业人士会分析它们的差别以找到反转点。大部分期货交易者都不会等太久，它们会提前把期货卖掉，利润和亏损都是用现金结算的。期货的交割日期决定了很多人要去兑现，故需要检查现实的状况。一个人可以持有亏损的股票长达10年，欺骗自己说这只是账面亏损。对于期货，只要日期到了，一相情愿的人就惨了。

To understand how futures work, let’s compare a futures trade with a cash trade - buying or selling a quantity of a commodity outright. Let’s say it’s February and gold is trading at $400 an ounce. Your analysis indicates it is likely to rise to $420 within weeks. With $40,000 you can buy a 100-ounce gold bar from a dealer. If your analysis is correct, in a few weeks your gold will be worth $42,000. You can sell it and make a $2,000 profit, or 5 percent before commissions - nice. Now let’s see what happens if you trade futures based on the same analysis.

为了了解期货的原理，我们拿期货和现金交易对比——买卖一些商品。假如说2月黄金的价格是400元/盎司。你的分析是说它很可能在几周内涨到420元。你可以用40000元买100盎司。如果你的分析是对的，你的黄金在几周内会涨到42000元。你可以把它卖掉并得到2000元的利润，或者是5%的利润，未扣除手续费——很不错。好了，我们再来看看，如果分析是对的，期货是什么样子。

Since it is February, April is the next delivery month for gold. One futures contract covers 100 oz. of gold, with a value of $40,000. The margin on this contract is only $1,000. In other words, you can control $40,000 worth of gold with a $1,000 deposit. If your analysis is correct and gold rallies $20 per oz., you’ll make roughly the same profit as you would have made had you bought 100 oz. of gold for cash - $2,000. Only now your profit is not 5% but 200%, since your margin was $1,000. Futures can really boost your gains!

现在是2月，4月是黄金期货的交割月。一份期货合约代表100盎司的黄金，价值就是40000元。保证金只要1000元。换句话说，你用1000元控制了价值40000元的黄金。如果你的分析正确，黄金真的涨了20元/盎司，你买了100盎司，你就会赚到同样的利润，现金就是2000元。现在你的利润不是5%，而是200%，因为你的保证金只交了1000元。期货真的能提高收入。

Most people, once they understand how futures work, are flooded with greed. An amateur with $40,000 calls his broker and tells him to buy 40 contracts! If his analysis is correct and gold rallies to $420, he’ll make $2,000 per contract, or $80,000. He’ll triple his money in a few weeks! If he repeats this just a few times, he’ll be a millionaire before the end of the year! Such dreams of easy money ruin gamblers. What, if anything, do they overlook?