第09章 以交易为生

Trading attracts us with its promise of freedom. If you can trade, you can live and work anywhere in the world, be independent from the routine, and not answer to anybody. You can trade from a beach bungalow or a mountaintop chalet, as long as you have a good Internet connection. You have no boss, no customers, no alarm clock. You are your own person.

交易吸引我们是因为它承诺可以自由。如果你能交易，你可以在任何地方生活和工作，没有例行事物，不用理会任何人。只要你有互联网连接，你可以在海边小屋交易，或在山顶木屋交易。你没有老板，没有客户，没有闹钟。你就是你自己。

People pay lip service to their dreams of freedom, but many feel frightened by it. If I stop making money for any reason whatsoever, no corporate parent will take care of me. This a frightening thought for most people. No wonder so many of us have grown used to the security of our corporate cages.

人们为了实现自由，花钱被骗，但也有很多人害怕。如果我不再赚钱，就再也没有公司照顾我了。这是大多数人和恐怖的想法。难怪有这么多人喜欢公司牢笼带来的安全感。

Caged animals develop all sorts of neurotic behaviors. A common neurosis is an addiction to the earn-and-spend cycle. We are taught since childhood that our place in society is defined by what we consume. If you drive a $50,000 car, you are a better, more successful person than someone who drives a $15,000 auto, whereas a neighbor who drives a $120,000 car is a very special winner altogether. The man who dresses at an Armani boutique is a more refined individual than someone who buys his pants and shirts at the corner store. Society waves countless carrots in our faces. The ads sell not food, shelter, or transportation, but a boost of self-esteem. An addict feels revived by a fix for only a short time. People spend their entire lives straining to keep up with the Joneses. Those dastardly Joneses do not have the decency to stay in place, and as they climb the ladder, we must climb also.

被笼养的动物形成了各种神经质行为。常见的神经质行为就是赚到再花掉。我们从小就被教育说我们的社会地位取决与我们消费的水平。如果你开50000元的小轿车，你还可以，比开15000元车的人要成功，然而一个开120000元车的邻居就是特别的赢家了。一个在阿玛尼服装店买衣服的男士要比在街角商店买衣服的人要举止优雅。社会用很多方法迷惑我们。广告不卖食品，保障物或交通，卖的是自我崇拜。为此上瘾的人只能得到短暂的满足。人们用了一生的时间努力活得体面。这些人为了保持体面，就要往上爬，我们也必须往上爬。

Freedom begins in our minds, not in our bank accounts. To liberate yourself, start becoming conscious of your spending. You are likely to see that you need much less than you thought, making freedom that much closer.

自由开始于我们的思想，不是银行账号。要想解放自己，开始要了解自己的消费。你会明白你需要的比你想的要少，实现自由要容易些。

There was a Wall Street analyst by the name of Joe Dominguez who saved enough money to retire at 31. He spent the rest of his life enjoying himself, doing volunteer work, and writing a book called Your Money or Your Life.

有个华尔街分析师叫乔·多明戈斯，他存了足够的钱，在31岁退休。然后他开始享受自己，做义工，写了一本书《你的钱或你的生活》。

We aren’t making a living, we are making a dying. Consider the average American worker. The alarm rings at 6:45 and our working man or woman is up and running. Shower. Dress in the professional uniform - suits or dresses for some, overalls for others, whites for the medical professionals, jeans and flannel shirts for construction workers. Breakfast, if there’s time. Grab commuter mug and briefcase (or lunch box) and hop in the car for the daily punishment called rush hour. On the job from nine to five. Deal with the boss. Deal with the coworker sent by the devil to rub you the wrong way. Deal with suppliers. Deal with clients/customers/patients. Act busy. Hide mistakes. Smile when handed impossible deadlines. Give a sigh of relief when the ax known as ‘restructuring’ or ‘downsizing’ - or just plain getting laid off - falls on other heads. Shoulder the added workload. Watch the clock. Argue with your conscience but agree with the boss. Smile again. Five o’clock. Back in the car and onto the freeway for the evening commute. Home. Act human with mates, kids or roommates. Eat. Watch TV. Bed. Eight hours of blessed oblivion.

我们不是在生活，我们是在死亡。想想美国的普通工人吧。闹钟在6：45分响，我们的男工或女工开始起床，奔跑。沐浴。穿上职业服装——为别人穿衣服，白色为医生，牛仔和绒布衣服为建筑工人。如果有时间就吃早餐。抓起工作时用的大杯子和箱子（或是午餐盒），上车接受每天的惩罚，叫上下班交通高峰期。从9点到5点工作。和老板交涉。和魔鬼派来的可恶同事交涉。和供应商交涉。和客户/客人/病人交涉。很忙。隐藏错误。当有无法完成的任务派下来时苦笑。当知道所谓的精简，裁员发生在别人头上时，终于松了一口气。对加班无可奈何。看着钟。没有良心地争吵，但完全同意老板的。再笑笑。5点了。回到车上开始回家了。到家了。和家人，小孩或一个宿舍的人像人一样交流。吃饭。看电视。上床。8小时幸运地被遗忘。

And they call this making a living? Think about it. How many people have you seen who are more alive at the end of the work day than they were at the beginning? . . . Aren’t we killing ourselves - our health, our relationships, our sense of joy and wonder - for our jobs? We are sacrificing our lives for money - but it’s happening so slowly that we barely notice.

他们说这就是生活？想想吧。每天下班时，多有少人像早上一样鲜活？我们是不是在杀死自己——我们的健康，我们的关系，我们快乐和幻想的感觉——都为了工作？我们为了钱牺牲自己——但这样的事发生的太慢了，我们都没注意到。

Pull out your old tax returns or cash income books and add up all earnings since your first job. You’re likely to find that even a moderately successful person has earned a million dollars or more. And spent it! Have you ever seen hamsters racing on a treadmill? Wouldn’t it be nice to hop off, go for a walk, stop by some flowers and inhale? Most people cannot relax because they are hooked on spending. When they begin to trade, they set impossible goals. Fifty percent in the first year is not enough when you crave a downpayment on a Ferrari.

把你的纳税申报单或收入情况拿出来看看，从你第一次工作开始加总你的收入。你会发现即使是中等水平的成功者也赚了100万或更多。然后花掉了！你见过白鼠在圈子里跑吗？跳出来，散散步，路过鲜花时闻一下是多么好？大多数人不愿意放松，因为他们消费上瘾了。当他们开始交易时，他们设置不可能的目标。如果你想赚钱开法拉利，第一年赚50%也是不够的。

There is nothing wrong with owning a Ferrari or any other luxury, provided you have given it a lot of thought and are buying it for a true personal need rather than responding to advertising propaganda. People keep buying things to shut out their feelings of emptiness and dissatisfaction. A person who uses money to stuff up his sense of emptiness can hardly focus on finding the best quality trades.

如果你经过了慎重的考虑，确实有需要，那么买一部法拉利或其它奢侈品都是没错的。但是不要因为广告的宣传就去买。人们不停地买东西是为了弥补空虚和不满。用钱来满足空虚的人很难找到高质量的交易机会。

Find the minimal level of spending which feels comfortable to you. To quote Dominguez again,

找到最低的消费水平，同时感觉舒服的水平。再次引用多明戈斯的话，

You have enough for your survival, enough for your comforts, and even some special luxuries, with no excess to burden you unnecessarily. Enough is a powerful and free place. A confident and flexible place.

你有足够的生存条件，足够的舒服条件，足够的特殊奢侈品，但没有借口买非必需品。足够是有利的，自由的，自信的，灵活的。

Become conscious of your expenditures. Use cash instead of plastic whenever possible. Stop trying to impress people with your possessions. They are not paying attention because they are too busy trying to impress you. Pay off all your debts, including your mortgage. That’s not too hard once you reduce your expenses. Set aside enough money to live for 6 to 12 months and loosen the link between work and income. Trading should be a high-paying, high-integrity self-employment. Once your living expenses are covered, start putting extra profits into tax-free bonds so that eventually you’ll have enough income to take care of your normal needs in perpetuity. If tax-free municipals yield 5%, then $1 million worth of them will bring you $50,000 a year, free and clear. Will that be enough? Will you need twice that much? Three times? Five? The sooner you lower your expenses, the sooner you’ll reach the moment of liberation. Rationally managing your personal finances prepares you to rationally manage your trading account.

对你的消费要有清醒的认识。只要有可能，尽量使用现金消费，不要用信用卡。不要用你的财物来刺激别人。他们没有时间关注，因为他们要忙着刺激你。还清所有的欠债，包括你的抵押贷款。只要你降低消费，这些都不是太难。单独安排一笔钱，以保证你可以生活半年到一年，减轻工作和收入的关系。交易可以实现高收入，高度统一的个人职业。一旦你的生活费没问题了，就开始把多余的利润投入到免税债券，这样，你就可以永远地用这些收入来满足你的正常需求了。如果免税债券的收益是5%，那么100万就可以每年产生50000元的收益，没有任何费用。这样够吗？你要2倍？3倍？5倍？你能把消费降低的越快，你实现自由的速度就越快。理性地管理你的个人消费，就能让你做好理性地管理交易帐户的准备。

You probably did not expect a discussion of personal spending in a book on trading. If it has caught your attention, follow up by reading the Dominguez book. The key idea for traders is to approach the market in a sober and rational manner, maximizing gains, minimizing losses, and being accountable for every step that they take.

你没想到交易书里面会谈个人消费吧。如果这能引起你的注意，请继续读多明戈斯的书。关键思想就是交易时要清醒，理性，扩大利润，减少亏损，对自己的每一步都负责。

DISCIPLINE AND HUMILITY

纪律和人性

A friend started out as a floor clerk and struggled for eight years before his trading took off. Now he is a world-famous money manager, and many of those who knew him when he was a beginner like to reminisce about how he clerked on one of the smaller exchanges in New York, taught classes, and struggled to make ends meet. An old trader said to me, “I knew him then, and I thought he would succeed. He had the right combination of being very careful and having this optimism you need to get up in the morning and believe you’re going to make money trading the markets.”

一个朋友刚开始是做场内助理，奋斗了8年才开始自己的交易。现在他是全球著名的基金经理，早期认识他的人都爱回忆他在纽约小交易所做助理的情形，授课，努力和客户见面。一个老交易者告诉我“我当时就认识他，我知道他会成功。他知道要认真，他很乐观，他早上起来时就相信自己一定会通过交易赚到钱，他有这方面的综合素质。”

To succeed in trading, you need both confidence and caution. Having only one is dangerous. If you’re confident but not cautious, you’ll be arrogant, and that’s a deadly trait for traders. If, on the other hand, you are cautious but have no confidence, you will not be able to pull the trigger.

要想交易成功，你既需要自信，又要谨慎。只有一项是危险的。如果你自信但不谨慎，你就会自大，这是交易者的致命缺点。如果相反，你谨慎但不自信，你就不敢扣扳机。

You need confidence to say, “This stock is going up, my indicators say it will continue to rise, I am going to get long and ride this trend.” At the same time, you need to be humble enough to put on trades whose size will not endanger your account. You have to accept the uncertainty of the markets and be ready to take a small loss without quibbling.

你需要自信地说：“这只股票是上涨的，我的指标告诉我它还会涨，我准备顺势做多。”同时，你还要谦虚，仓位不要太大，以免把账户毁了。你还要接受市场的不确定性，不找借口地接受小亏损。

When you feel a surge of confidence in a new trade, it is hard to think of the downside risk, but if you don’t do it, you cannot protect yourself. When the market goes against you and hits your predefined exit level, you have to humbly exit, no matter how confident you feel about that trade. You need both confidence and humility. The ability to be aware of two conflicting feelings at the same time is one of the hallmarks of emotional maturity.

如果你对新交易感觉很自信，很难想到下跌的风险，但如果你想不到，你就不能保护自己。当市场对你不利，碰到了你提前设好的出场点，你必须谦虚地出场，不管你是多么自信。你需要同时拥有自信和谦虚。同时拥有2种冲突的感觉是成熟的标志。

I have a client in New York who came to several seminars and bought books and videos from my firm but kept struggling for years as a trader. He’d get ahead, fall behind, get ahead again, then lose money and get a job to make ends meet. He often seemed on the verge of success, but kept bouncing around breakeven. Then one day, I ran into him at a conference and saw a changed man. He was doing supremely well, managing about $80 million, with terrific grades from the rating agencies. A few weeks later I stopped by his office.

我在纽约有一个客户，他参加过几次我的研讨会，到我的公司买过书和录像带，但是多年来他还在交易中挣扎。他会进步，落后，再次进步，最终亏钱，只好去找了一个工作以维持生存。他经常看起来要成功了，但是总是回到不赚不亏的地步。一天，我参加一个会议，看见他变了。他做的特别好，管理的资金有8000万，评估公司对他的评分特别高。几周后，我去了他的公司。

He had continued using the same trading system, developed years ago and derived from Triple Screen. He had made only one change. Instead of second-guessing the system, he came to see himself as a clerk. He imagined he had a boss who went to Tahiti and left him to trade the system. The boss will return and give him a bonus, depending not on profits, but on how faithfully he followed the system. My client stopped trying to be a hot-shot trader and moved into a position of humility and discipline. That’s when he rose to sweeping success.

他还在继续使用同样的交易系统，是几年前从三重滤网形成的。他只改变了一个地方。不是猜系统，他把自己变成了助理。他想象自己有个老板，老板去了塔希提岛，留下他做交易。老板回来后，会给他奖金，不是根据利润给，而是根据他遵守系统的忠诚度。我的客人不再追求成为交易名人，而是成为谦虚的人，有纪律的人。这样，他就开始成功了。

Second-guessing a system is a terrible error that creates a huge level of uncertainty. Tom Basso, a prominent money manager, says that it is hard enough to figure out what the market is going to do; if you do not know what you’re going to do, the game is lost.

猜系统是一个很大的缺点，容易导致巨大的不确定性。汤姆·巴索是著名的基金经理，他说猜测市场的走势是非常难的，如果你不知道自己该怎么办，游戏就输了。

Choose your system, set up your money management rules, test everything. Run the system each night, write down its signals, and read those messages to your broker in the morning. Do not improvise when quotes flash in front of your face because they hypnotize you and prompt you to put on impulsive trades.

选择你的系统，设置好资金管理原则，测试所有的参数和情况。每晚运行系统，写下它的信号，第二天早上向你的经纪人读出这些信息。当波动在你面前不断跳动的时候，你不要做临时决定，因为波动就是要引诱你去做冲动交易。

What if the markets change and your system starts missing good moves or chewing up equity? Well, you should have tested it over a long enough stretch of data to feel confident about its long-term performance. Your money management rules will help you ride out a rough stretch. Be very conservative with an existing system. If you’re feeling restless, design a new system and trade it in a different account - leave what works alone.

如果市场改变了，你的系统错过了大波动，或是资金亏损了，该怎么办？你应该用足够长的数据来测试系统，以找到对长期表现的信心。你的资金管理原则会帮助你走过艰难的路。对系统要保守。如果你觉得不安，可以设计一个新系统，用不同的账户来测试它——别动有用的老系统。

Trading demands discipline, but, paradoxically, attracts impulsive people. Trading requires practice, humility, and perseverance. Successful traders are strong but humble people, open to new ideas. Beginners like to brag, experts like to listen.

交易需要纪律，但矛盾的是，它吸引的是冲动型的人。交易需要实践，谦虚，和恒心。成功的交易者坚强，谦虚，对新思想开放。新手喜欢吹牛，专业人士喜欢细听。

Ten Points

When a beginner puts on a trade too big for his account, and it starts to swing, it floods him with adrenaline. An upswing gives him enough money to dream about moving to easy street. Feeling elated, he misses the signals of a top and gets caught in a downside reversal. A down-swing puts him into such a state of fear that he misses the signals of a bottom and sells out right near the lows. Beginners pay more attention to their emotions than to the reality of the markets.

当新手重仓交易时，市场又在波动，他就激动了。上涨的波动赚了很多钱，它开始做梦上街游逛。感觉太高兴了，他错过了顶部的信号，被反转套住了。下跌把他搞怕了，他错过了底部信号，在底部附近卖出了。新手要多注意自己的情绪，比注意市场还重要。

Once you begin to develop discipline, you start seeing much more clearly what happens outside of your little account and in the great big market out there. When you see the market freeze in a flat trading range or explode in a vertical rally, you know what the masses of traders feel, because you have been there. When a market goes flat, and amateurs lose interest, you know that a breakout is coming. You were once that amateur, you overlooked breakouts because you got bored and stopped watching the markets. Now, when the market goes flat, you recognize the way you used to be, and are ready to act.

一旦你形成了纪律，你就开始看清楚你小账户之外的大市场。当你看见市场横盘不动，或垂直爆发式上涨，你就知道了交易者的感觉，因为你也曾经有过这样的感觉。当市场横盘时，业余选手失去了兴趣，你知道突破就要来了。你曾经是业余选手，你错过了突破，因为你当时感觉无聊，你没有盯着市场。现在，当市场横盘时，你明白了你过去的样子，你要开始行动了。

The market surges to a new high, pauses for a day, and goes vertical. The newspapers, radio, and TV are screaming about the new bull market. If you are a disciplined trader, you remember how, years ago, you bought within a few ticks of the top. This time is different. You reach for the phone and start taking profits on positions acquired when the market looked boring and flat. Understanding yourself and the path you have traveled allows you to read the market and beat your competitors.

上涨猛涨到新高，停留了一天，然后垂直向上。报纸，广播，电视都在叫嚷新的上涨。如果你是有纪律的交易者，你应该记得几年前，你在顶部买入了。这次不同。你打电话开始兑现利润。知道你过去走过的路能让你看清市场，打败竞争对手。

How do you know that you are becoming a disciplined trader?

你如何知道你是有纪律的交易者？

You keep accurate records. You maintain the minimum of four records - a trader’s spreadsheet, an equity curve, a trader’s diary, and an action plan. You scrupulously keep your records up to date and study them to learn from your experiences.

你做准确的交易记录。你保持了至少4中交易记录——电子表格，资金曲线，交易日记，交易计划。你认真做交易记录，从中学习可以积累经验。

Your equity curve shows a steady uptrend with shallow drawdowns. The performance standard for professional money managers is 25% annual gain on the account, with no drawdowns of more than 10% from peak equity. If you can match or exceed that, you are far ahead of the game.

你的资金曲线是稳步上涨，伴随浅的回落。基金经理的标准成绩是每年赚25%，资金从顶部下跌不超过10%。如果你也能做到，甚至更好，你已经跑在游戏前面了。

You make your own trading plans. Even when you get a terrific-sounding tip from a friend, you do not get swept up in the excitement. You either ignore it or put it through your own decision-making screens.

你自己做交易计划。即使朋友告诉你一个恐怖的消息，你也不会吓坏。你要么忽略它，要么用自己的决策系统来分析它。

You do not chat about your trading. You may discuss a technical point or a closed trade with a trusted friend, but you never ask for advice on an open trade. You do not disclose your positions so as not to expose yourself to unwanted advice or tie up your ego in the process.

你不吹嘘自己的交易。你也许会跟朋友讨论技术点或过去的交易，但是你永远不会要建议。你不会公布自己的仓位，这样就不会导致意外的建议，或自满。

You learn all you can about the market you’re trading. You have a good grasp of the main technical, fundamental, intermarket, and political factors that may impact your stock or a future.

你为了研究市场，你努力学习。你对可能影响股票和期货的主要技术分析，基本面分析，跨市场分析，政治因素分析都能很好地掌握。

You grade yourself on the adherence to your written plan. Imagine you are an employee, and the boss has left on an extended vacation, leaving you to manage his money by following his plan. When he returns he will reward or punish you based on how faithfully you followed his plan.

你根据自己的书面交易计划给自己打分。想象你是职员，老板去度假了，归期未定，留下你按照他的计划交易。根据你遵守计划的忠诚度，他回来时会奖赏你或惩罚你。

You allot a certain amount of time to the markets each day. You download data each day, put it through your battery of tests and screens, and write down the results and plans for tomorrow. You allocate time in your daily schedule to make trading a regular activity and not something you do catch as catch can.

你每天分配一定的时间研究市场。你每天下载数据，经过你一系列的测试，然后写下结果和第二天的交易计划。你每天安排时间做计划，让交易成为例行活动，而不是一时性起。

You monitor selected markets daily, regardless of their activity. You avoid the typical beginners’ error of monitoring markets only when they are active and “interesting.” You know that strong moves spring from periods of relative inactivity.

你每天观察你选择的市场，不在乎它们的波动大小。你避免像新手那样犯错，只关心有波动和兴趣的市场。你明白大波动是从相对平静的时候发展的。

You learn and are open to new ideas, but are skeptical of claims. You read market books and magazines, attend conferences, participate in online forums, but you do not accept any ideas without testing them on your own data.

你坚持学习，对新思想开放，但对断言表示怀疑。你阅读投资书籍和杂志，参加研讨会，参与网上论坛，但是如果没有经过自己的测试，你不相信任何思想。

You follow your money management rules as if your life depended on them - because your financial life does. If you have good money management, most decent trading systems will make you money in the long run.

你依赖你的资金管理原则，就想你的生命依赖它一样——因为你的金融生活确实依靠它。如果你有优秀的资金管理，出色的交易系统会让你长期赚钱

HAVE YOU GOT THE TIME?

你有时间吗？

All traders pay attention to money but few are aware of the importance of time. Time is just as crucial as money - the more you have, the more likely you are to win.

所有的交易者都关心钱，但是只有少数人意识到了时间的重要性。它和钱一样重要——你拥有的越多，你越可能赢。

Most people start out with too little money, and most traders do not give themselves enough time to learn. Trading is very different from physics or mathematics, where genius reveals itself early. In science, if you’re not a star by the time you’re 25, you’ll never be one. Trading, on the contrary, is an old man’s game, and now increasingly a woman’s. Patience is a virtue and memory a great asset. If you slightly improve each year, you can grow into a brilliant trader.

大多数人开始时钱都不多，大多数交易者也没有给自己足够的学习时间。交易和物理或数学完全不同，在物理，数学领域，天才很快就能出现。在科学方面，如果你25岁还没有出名，那么你永远都不会出名。交易相反，是老人的游戏，现在逐渐成为女人的游戏。耐心是美德，记忆力是重大财产。如果你每年都提高一点点，你会成长为出色的交易者。

My friend Lou Taylor, to whom Trading for a Living was dedicated, used to say, “if I become half a percent smarter each year, I’ll be a genius by the time I die.” As always with him, there was a great deal of wisdom in his joke.

我的朋友娄·泰勒，《以交易为生》就是为他写的，他过去常说：“如果我每年能变聪明0.5%，那么我死的时候已经是天才了。”我经常和他在一起，他的笑话里面有很多智慧。

Raise your eyes from the keyboard and think about two goals - to learn to trade and to make money. Which comes first and which comes second? Stop killing yourself trying to make a lot of money in a hurry. Learn to trade, and the money will follow. An intelligent horse trainer does not overload a young horse. Training comes first, pulling heavy loads comes later.

把你的眼光从键盘抬起，思考2个目标——学习如何交易，赚钱。谁先，谁后？不要想赚快钱，这样会害死你。先学习交易，然后钱就来了。聪明的驯马师是不会让小马超载的。先训练，后设置更高的目标。

You learn best by making many small trades and analyzing your performance. The more you trade, the more you learn. Play for small stakes to reduce the pressure and concentrate on quality. You can always increase your size later. The goal is to acquire enough experience so that most actions become nearly automatic. A trader whose experience has taught him a lot of practical skills can focus on strategy - what he wants to do - instead of worrying about his next step.

通过很多小交易，分析自己的成绩，你就可以学习交易。你交易的越多，你学到的就越多。用小赌注去玩降低了压力，可以专注于质量。你以后有的是时间加仓。目标是获得足够的经验，这样大部分行动都是自动的。如果交易者的经验告诉他很多实际技巧，他可以关注策略——想做什么——而不是担心下一步。

If you are serious about trading, you have got to put time into it. Markets have to be studied, trading methods dissected and rated, systems designed and applied, decisions made and recorded. All of this adds up to a fair bit of work. What is a fair bit? Two examples come to mind, at opposite ends of the spectrum.

如果你对交易认真，你必须在交易方面花时间。需要研究市场，分析交易方法，对交易方法评分，设计和使用系统，做决定，做交易记录。所有这些加在一起是需要一定工作量的。什么叫一定工作量？我想到了2个例子，正好是2个相反的。

At the hard-working end, I think of a top-rated American futures money manager in whose apartment I once stayed. We lived under the same roof, but I hardly ever saw him. He would leave for the office before 7 A.M., return after 10 P.M., and fall asleep in his clothes in the living room. He worked like that six days a week, but on a Sunday he took it easy. In the morning he would go for a game of squash at a club before running back to the office to prepare for the opening on Monday. No wife, no girlfriend, no pastimes, and no friends - but man, was he raking in millions!

关于努力工作的人，我想到了一个排名很靠前的美国期货基金经理，我有一次去过他的办公室。我们生活在一个地方，但我几乎见不到他。他早上7点去上班，晚上10点才回家，不脱衣就睡着了。他一周工作6天，周六则轻松些。周六早上他去俱乐部打壁球，然后跑到办公室准备周一的开盘工作。没有老婆，没有女友，没有娱乐，没有朋友——但这个人，是百万级别的！

At the relaxed, but still very disciplined end, I think of a middle-aged Chinese trader whom I visited in his mansion when the stock markets were reeling throughout Asia. He had made a fortune in the two bull markets of the previous 10 years and told me that he needed just one more Asian bull market to make all the money he wanted. He was prepared to wait for several years for the next one, but meanwhile looked after his family, collected art, and played a lot of golf. He spent a few hours a week downloading the data and watching his indicators.

关于放松型的，但仍然有纪律的人，我想到了一个中年的中国交易者，当亚洲股市缓缓而行时，我去参观了他的大房子。他在过去10年的牛市中赚了很多钱，他说他还要等到一个亚洲牛市，这样他就能赚到他想要的所有的钱。为了等这次牛市，他等了很多年，同时要照顾家庭，收集艺术品，玩高尔夫。一周他花几个小时的时间下载数据，分析指标。

How much time should you spend analyzing markets and doing your homework? A beginner must spend every minute of his waking hours learning the basics. How much time will you need at the next stage, once you’ve become a competent semiprofessional trader? We are talking about position trading and not day-trading, which forces one to stay in front of the screen all day. The answer depends on how fast you work and how many markets you trade.

分析市场，做功课，要花多少时间？新手只要是清醒的，每分每秒都要学习基本知识。如果你成为一个有能力的，半专业的交易者，下一步要花多少时间？我们谈的是仓位交易，不是日内交易，日内交易要整天对着屏幕。答案取决于你工作有多快，你在几个市场交易？

You must dedicate a certain amount of time to the markets each day. Amateurs and gamblers make a typical mistake. When markets are inactive, they stop watching and lose touch. They wake up after hearing the news of a runaway move. By that time, the markets are running - the amateurs have missed yet another train and now they chase it, hoping to hop aboard a runaway trend.

你每天都必须花点时间研究市场。业余选手和赌徒犯典型错误。当市场平静时，他们就不看了，不再关注。他们醒来时，发现新闻说有大波动。当市场有波动时——业余选手已经错过了火车，现在要追了，跳上了猛涨的趋势。

An organized trader tracks his markets, whether he trades them at the moment or not. He notices when a listless range starts rubbing against a resistance, buys early, and when amateurs start piling into the rally, he takes profits, selling to lazy latecomers. A serious trader is ahead of the game because he does his homework day in and day out.

有条理的交易者跟踪自己的市场，不管此时有没有交易。当他看见没精打采的趋势在压力区磨磨蹭蹭时，他提前买入；当业余选手在上涨时挤进场时，他兑现利润，卖给懒惰的后来者。认真的交易者总是走在游戏的前面，因为他每天都在做功课。

How much time will you need? For every stock you must get a handle on its key fundamentals, including its industry group. For futures, there are the additional factors of supply and demand, seasonals, and spreads between delivery months. You need to make a calendar of events that may impact your market, such as Federal Reserve announcements or earnings reports. You need to study weekly charts for the past several years and daily charts for at least a year. You need to apply indicators, learn which work best with that market, and test their parameters.

你需要多少时间？对于每只股票，你要掌握它的关键基本面，包括它属于哪个行业。对于期货，还要分析供应和需求因素，季节因素，交割期的价差因素。你还要一个标有重大事件的日历，也许对市场会有冲击，比如美联储的宣布，收益报告。你必须研究过去几年的周线图，你必须研究至少一年的日线图。你需要使用指标，研究哪个效果最好，还要测试参数。

Unless you are a genius or a speed demon, it is hard to accomplish this in less than two hours. And that is just an entry fee into any trading vehicle. Afterward the daily grind begins. A serious trader reviews weekly and daily charts each day. You have to compare your market with other related ones. You have to make daily notes and write down your plans for the day ahead. To do this properly, you’ll need at least 15 minutes per stock or future.

除非你是天才或魔鬼，完成这些工作至少要2个小时。这就是交易的入门费。痛苦的还在后面，认真的交易者还要每天分析周线图和日线图。你必须把这个市场和相关市场进行对比。你必须每天写日记，提前一天写下你的交易计划。要想把这做好，每只股票或期货至少需要15分钟。

And this is in a fairly routine day. What about the day when your market hits support or resistance, or breaks out of its trading range, and a trade seems imminent? Then you might spend closer to an hour analyzing it, measuring risk and reward, and deciding on your entry points and profit targets.

这是每天的例行工作。如果哪天市场碰到了支撑区，压力区，横盘突破，在这些即将来临的交易面前该怎么办？那么你要多花1个小时分析它，计算风险和回报，决定进场点和利润目标。

So let us turn the question around: If you have an hour a day for analysis, how many markets should you follow? Three, maybe four. If you have two hours, you may be able to follow six, eight, or even ten. The ABC system for organizing homework may allow you to double the number of markets. Whatever you do, remember, quality is more important than quantity.

所以，我们换个问法：如果你每天只有一个小时做分析，你可以分析几个市场？3个，也许4个。如果你有2个小时，你也许可以分析6，8，10个。有组织的功课使用的ABC系统可以让你分析1倍多的市场。不管你做什么，记住，质量比数量远远重要。

Before you add a stock to your list, decide whether you have enough time to track it, day in and day out. You may skip a day once in a while, but even then you should at least glance at your markets. Daily homework is essential, and the number of markets you may follow depends on how much time you have each day. When we get out of touch, we grow cold. Even professionals take a few days to get back in touch with their markets after a vacation. These are the stages of development:

在你增加自选股之前，要决定是否每天有足够的时间来跟踪它。有时，你会错过一天，但即使如此，你也要扫一眼你的市场。每天的功课很关键，你每天的时间越多，能跟踪的市场就越多。当人们不再联系，感情就淡了。即使专业人士休假了，他回来后也要花几天熟悉市场。以下是发展的阶段：

Beginner: At the start, track approximately six, but no more than 10 trading vehicles. You can always add more later. It is better to start with fewer markets and follow them well than to start with a lot and fall behind.

新手：刚开始可以跟踪6个，但不会超过10个市场。以后可以加多。最好是一开始少跟踪几个，并跟踪好，这比一开始跟了一把，但都没跟好强。

Daily homework is essential for developing a feel for the markets. Allocate time to study your markets each day. Even if you come home late at night from your job or a party, you can still find 10 minutes to download the data and glance at your five or six stocks. You can update your mental picture of them even if you don’t plan to trade them tomorrow. A beginner who follows too many stocks bites off more than he can chew, falls behind, and becomes demoralized. Better to follow a small number, get to know them well, and add more later.

每天的功课很关键，为了形成市场感觉。每天分配时间研究市场。即使你工作或聚会的原因回来很晚了，你也要挤10分钟下载数据，看5，6只股票。即使第二天你不交易它们，这样看看也能在大脑里面给他们拍照了。新手跟踪很多股票，等于一次吃太多东西，会落后，变得意志消沉。最好少跟踪几个股票，多了解它们，以后再多跟踪。

Intermediate: You may track several dozen stocks or futures at this stage. Analyzing each will take just as much time as it did when you were a beginner, but you’ll analyze them more deeply. A serious amateur or a semiprofessional trader can use his time more efficiently with the help of the ABC Rating System (see next page).

中等水平：在这个阶段，你可以跟踪几十个股票或期货。所花的时间和新手时花的时间一样多，但是你可以更深入地研究。认真的业余选手或半专业交易者可以利用ABC评分系统实现高效率。

Some good traders choose not to expand the number of stocks or futures they trade. A person might concentrate only on soybeans and their products, or only currencies, or only five or six technology stocks. In addition to analyzing your markets, expect to spend a minimum of five to six hours a week reading books and articles and interacting with other traders on the Internet.

一些优秀的交易者并不想扩大自己交易的股票和期货数量。一个人也许会聚焦于大豆和相关产品，或仅仅是外汇，或仅仅是5，6个科技股。除了分析市场，每周至少还要花5，6个小时看书，看文章，在网上和其它交易者交流。

After about a year or longer at this stage you will face an important choice: to treat trading as a mildly profitable hobby or to try to rise to the professional level. In that case, you will need to dedicate more time to trading. You will have to make sacrifices in other areas of your life and spend at least four to six hours a day working in the markets.

在这个阶段一年或更长时间以后，你要面对一个重要选择：把交易当作赚钱的还好，还是尽力做到专业的水平。如果专业做，你需要更多的时间。在需要在其它领域牺牲时间，每天花在市场的时间至少是4——6个小时。

Professional: people who trade for a living tend to drop other professional interests. The markets demand time and attention, and money management is more challenging because the account is much bigger.

专业人士：以交易为生的人一般会放弃其它专业兴趣。这个市场需要时间和关注，当账户很大时，资金管理会变得很难。

A professional trader almost always uses some version of the ABC Rating System, unless he chooses to trade just a handful of markets. He spends more time researching the markets. At the same time, he reviews them faster, thanks to his greater level of expertise. He spends several hours each week reading, deepening his analysis and improving his money management, and also keeping track of new developments on the Internet.

专业交易者机会总是使用类似ABC打分系统，除非他交易的市场太多了。他用更多的时间研究市场。同时，感谢他的丰富经验，他可以很快地研究市场。他每周需要几个小时阅读，加深他的分析能力，提高他的资金管理能力，还要跟踪网上的新发展。

The rewards are very good at this stage, but a professional who has put years into getting there does not become intoxicated with the results. He lives very well, but continues to work harder than most beginners. Traders at this level love the markets and derive a great deal of satisfaction from them, like skiers enjoy tall mountains.

在这个阶段回报很高，但花了几年心血的专业人士不会为这个结果而陶醉。他活的很好，但还要比大多数新手努力工作。这个水平的交易者爱这个市场，对这个市场感到满足，就像滑雪的人喜欢高山一样。

Managing Time with the ABC Rating System

ABC评分系统的时间

Markets generate colossal volumes of information. No human can process all the available data. No one can have in mind all the fundamental values, the economic trends, the technical indicators, the intraday action, and the buying and selling by insiders and market makers while making a trading decision. We want to be thorough in our research, but it can never be complete. We need to select a relatively small number of markets and design a trading plan in order to channel the incoming information into a more manageable stream.

市场会知道大量的信息。没有任何人可以消化这么多数据。没有人可以记住所有的基本价值，经济趋势，技术指标，日内波动，内部的买卖，做市商的买卖，同时还能做交易决定。我们想研究透彻，但永远不会透彻。我们需要选择少量的市场，设计一个交易计划，这样可以把涌进来的信息变成可以管理的信息流。

Trading is not about being brilliant, not about making forecasts, and not about scanning a huge universe of trading vehicles. Trading is about managing - our capital, our time, our analysis, and ourselves. If we manage right, we’ll grind out profits.

交易不是为了出名，不是为了做预测，不是为了研究庞大的交易对象。交易就是管理——我们的资金，我们的时间，我们的分析，我们自己。如果管理正确，利润就来了。

Managing time is an important aspect of success. Find out how much time you need, depending on your personal style, to research a new market and track it daily. The ABC Rating System is designed to deliver major time savings, allowing you to track and trade more markets in the same time. This system is not for beginners, but an intermediate or expert trader can definitely benefit from it.

管理时间是成功的重要方面。根据你的个人风格，找出你研究新市场，跟踪市场需要的时间。设计ABC评分系统是为了节约大量时间，让你在同样的时间内跟踪，交易更多的市场。这个系统不是为新手准备的，中等水平或专业的交易者一定会从中收益。

The ABC Rating System, shown to me by D. Guppy, is a system for managing time. It helps us concentrate on the markets in which a trade seems imminent and spend less time in less promising markets. The ABC system calls for a quick weekly review of all stocks or futures that you track and sorting them into three groups: A for those you think you might trade tomorrow, B for those you think you may trade later in the week, and C for those you do not expect to trade in the coming week.

ABC评分系统是D·顾比告诉我的，它是时间管理系统。他帮助我们专注于即将启动的市场，对希望不大的市场少花时间。ABC评分系统要求对周线图快速分析，并把你跟踪的股票或期货分为3组：A组是你明天要交易的，B组是一周内要交易的，C组是一周后不会交易的。

The best time to run the ABC system is on weekends, after you have downloaded all your data. Prepare a spreadsheet with a horizontal line for every stock or future you follow. Put their names in the left column. Use vertical columns to record your A, B, and C ratings, one column per day. Prepare the weekly and daily templates in your trading software. Drop the first market into the weekly template. Does it look like you might want to trade this stock tomorrow? For instance, if you only trade from the long side and the weekly chart is in a solid downtrend, you will not trade it next week. In that case, mark it with a C and move on. Drop the next market into your weekly template. If it looks like a possible trade, then drop it into your daily template. Does it look like you might want to trade it on Monday? If so, put an A into your spreadsheet. If it looks like an unlikely trade on Monday but possibly later that week, put a B in your spreadsheet. Now move to the next market and drop it into the weekly template. Repeat this process until you go through your entire list.

使用ABC系统的最佳时间是周末，此时你已经下载了所有的数据。准备一个电子表格，水平线是股票或期货。名字放在左边的栏内。垂直的栏用来记录ABC得分，一天一个栏。在你的交易软件里面准备好周线图和日线图的模式。把第一个市场放入周线图模式。看看是不是明天就要交易？比如说，如果你只做多，而周线图是明确的下跌，你下周是不会交易的。这样，把它标记为C，再继续往下找。把第二个市场拖进你的周线图模式。如果它看起来可以交易，那么把它拖进日线图模式。看看是不是周一就要交易？如果是，在电子表格里标记为A。如果它看起来不用周一交易，但也许下周会交易，在电子表格里标记为B。现在再把下一个市场拖到周线图模式中。如此重复，直到你完成了所有的市场。

Keep a good pace, do not slow down. You should be done with each market in well under one minute. Remember, good trades should leap at you from the screen and grab you by the face - it’s me, trade me! If you have to squint at a chart, there’s probably no trade.

步调要好，不要慢下来。你应该一分钟解决一个市场。记住，好的交易机会会从屏幕跳出来抓住你的脸——是我，交易我！如果对于一个图表，你只是斜着眼看，一般都不值得交易。

The real work begins after you have filled in your ABC spreadsheet. Now you must study each stock or future you have marked with an A. Apply your trading system, set up entry levels, stops, and profit targets, and write down your orders for the day ahead. Do this for every market you have rated an A, leaving aside all others. After the closing on Monday, go through all your A-rated markets. If you have entered them, fill in a page in your trading diary and continue to manage those trades according to your plan. If your entry orders have not been triggered, review those markets again - do you still want to enter on Tuesday? Filtering out B and C groups saves time and lets you concentrate on the most promising trades.

当你把整个ABC电子表格完成时，真正的工作才开始。这时，你必须研究所有标记为A的股票或期货。用上你的交易系统，设置进场点，止损点，利润目标，提前一天谢谢你的订单。每个标记为A的市场都要这么做，其它的就别管了。周一收盘后，分析所有标记为A的市场。如果你进场了，在你的日记中做好日记，再根据你的计划管理交易。如果你的进场单没有被执行，再次分析这些市场——你还想在周二进场吗？把B组和C组排除能节约时间，让你专注于最值得交易的机会。

Repeat the procedure after the closing on Tuesday, but now also review the markets you rated B over the weekend. Now is the time to decide whether you can upgrade them to an A and start monitoring them daily or downgrade them to a C and leave them alone until the weekend.

周二收盘后再重复这个过程，同时要研究标记为B的市场，因为本周后本部分可能会交易。此时，你要决定是否把它们升级到A组，每天监视它们，或降级到C组，留到周末再看。

Earlier, we reviewed the action plan, a spreadsheet for recording your orders for the day ahead. That and the ABC system lend themselves to being combined into a single spreadsheet. Each horizontal line holds a trading vehicle, and each vertical column one trading day. The cells are filled with the letters A, B, or C, indicating your rating for that stock or future for the day ahead. Red triangles in the corners identify those cells in which you have inserted comments that tell you how to trade them.

之前，我们谈了交易计划表，这个电子表格提前一天记录你的订单。这个表和ABC系统可以合并为一个电子表格。水平线代表市场，每一栏代表一个交易日。表格里充满了A，B，C，代表你对股票或期货的打分。表格角上红色三角形是你插入的评论，说明如何交易。

Boredom is the trader’s enemy. It is hard to watch a market day after day while it goes nowhere. A professional must track his markets, but no one enjoys watching paint dry. The ABC system provides an elegant solution. It lets you monitor all your markets in a quick and efficient manner, while dedicating most of your time and attention to the most promising trades. Once you get used to applying the ABC system, you can easily double the number of markets you follow and increase your trading opportunities.

无聊是交易者的敌人。天天看着市场，但是它却不动，这是很艰难的。专业人士必须跟踪他的市场，但没有人原因等着漆干。ABC系统提供了完美的解决方法。它让你用快速有效的方法监视所有的市场，同时用你主要时间关注最值得交易的市场。一旦你习惯了使用ABC系统，你跟踪的市场可以加倍，你的交易机会也增加了。

THE DECISION-MAKING TREE

A professional trader takes the markets seriously and gives them the time and attention they deserve. If you have read this far, you are probably more dedicated than the average person. Now is the time to zero in on your plan of action.

专业人士认真分析市场，花了时间，花了精力。如果你能读到这里，你也比一般人用心。现在要谈你的交易计划。

You need to allocate a certain time to market work each day; keeping in close touch with the market is essential for success. You have to decide what markets to trade and focus on a select few to be successful. You need to design a plan for your education. Last but not least, you need to design your trading plan; a written plan is the hallmark of a serious trader.

你每天都要花点时间在市场上，和市场接触也是成功的关键。你要决定交易安格市场，关注哪几个市场，这样才能成功。你要为你的成长做计划。最后，但不是最不重要的，你要做自己的交易计划，书面计划是认真交易者的标志。

Designing a Trading Plan

做交易计划

Traders go through three stages of development. We all start out as beginners. Some of us survive long enough to become serious amateurs or semipros, and a few rise to the expert level. A trader with a good written plan shows a rising level of development.

交易者经历3个发展阶段。我们一开始都是新手。一些人生存时间常，成为认真的业余选手或半个专业人士，少数成为专业人士。有书面交易计划的交易者表明他在向上发展。

A beginner never writes down a plan because he has nothing to write. He is having too much fun chasing hot tips and trying to make a quick killing. Even if he wanted to write, he wouldn’t know where to begin. A serious amateur or a semipro who writes down a plan, including money management rules, is on his way toward the expert level.

新手不会写什么东西，因为他没什么可写。他的乐趣是听消息，想快速绝杀。即使他想写，他也不知道从哪里开始。认真的业余选手或半个专业人士写计划，包括资金管理原则，这是通向专业人士的路。

The main difference between a trading plan and a mechanical system is the degree of freedom it allows traders. Trading systems are rigid, whereas plans lay down the main rules but leave you free to use your judgment.

交易计划和机械系统之间的主要区别就是交易者的自由程度。交易系统是僵硬了，然而计划只是采用了主要的原则，你可以自由使用自己的判断。

Some beginners gain a false sense of security from pouring tons of data into mechanical systems and finding sets of rules that would have worked in the past. The markets are live social organisms that develop, grow, and change. Rigid rules fitted to past data are not likely to perform well in the future. If mechanical systems could work, the best programmers would have owned the markets by now. All mechanical trading systems, left alone, self-destruct with the passage of time. Promoters keep selling them because the public loves marketing gimmicks.

一些新手用无数数据测试了机械系统，发现一些原则还真有用，为此找到了安全感。市场是鲜活的社会有机体，它在发展，成长，变化。僵硬的系统对过去有用，但不一定会对将来有用。如果机械系统有用，最厉害的程序员早就拥有了市场。如果不人工干涉的话，所有的机械交易系统都将随着时间的推移而自毁。销售商不停地推销它们是因为大众喜欢这些市场花招。

A trading plan includes a few unbreakable rules along with more flexible recommendations that call for an exercise of judgment. Your judgment grows with experience. A trading plan includes the principles for selecting markets, defines the types of trades, generates buy and sell signals, and allocates trading capital. When you write a plan, avoid the temptation to make it all-encompassing. Know when to stop. Write down your rules but indicate where you will use your judgment at the moment of decision.

交易计划包括了几个不能打破的原则和一些灵活的建议，你可以自己决定。你的判断随着经验的增长而增长。交易计划包括选择市场的原则，给交易下定义，产生买卖信号，分配资金。当你写计划时，不要被为了面面俱到而迷惑了。知道在哪里停下来。写下你的原则，知道何时使用自己的判断。

You must know what type of trading appeals to you. A general idea - to make money buying and selling - is not specific enough. Winners make money in different ways, while all losers fall into the same wastebasket of impulsivity. A long-term fundamental investor, like Peter Lynch, searching for his elusive “10-bagger”

- a stock that rises 10-fold - acts differently from a successful short-term trader who goes short to sell him that stock. Both may succeed in the long run, but the floor trader with a 30-minute time horizon will close his shorts on a tiny but profitable dip before the end of the day, just as surely as the long-term investor will hold on to his longs.

你必须知道你喜欢什么交易类型。通常的想法——通过买卖赚钱——这不够具体。赢家用不同的方法赚钱，输家由于冲动而竹篮打水一场空。长线基本面投资者，比如彼得·林奇，研究找到他独特的“十垒打”——涨10倍的股票——和短线交易者不同，短线交易者做空，把股票卖给他。长期而言，2个人都会成功，场内交易者知道多头会持有仓位，他观察30分钟图，会在收盘前平仓他的空头仓位，虽然很小，但有利润。

A trading plan reflects your interests in specific markets and techniques, your experience, and the size of your account. It reflects your personality as well as the behavior of your markets. If two friends with equal capital and similar experience traded the same market and wrote down their plans, they would come up with different outlines. You may create more than one plan if you like different types of trading.

交易计划反映了你对特定市场的兴趣，你的技术，你的经验，你的账户大小。它反映了你的个性，也反映了市场。如果2个朋友，资金一样，经验一样，市场一样，他们写下交易计划，结果是不同的。如果你喜欢不同类型的交易，你可以写多个交易计划。

If you do not have a plan, start working on one. Drafting an intelligent plan requires a huge amount of work. The first time I tried to do it was on a flight from New York to Los Angeles. I thought that five hours in the air would be enough. A month later I was still at it.