第7章资金管理公式

Do you trade for the money or for the thrill? Don’t tell me, just show your trading records. Don’t have good records? Well, that’s an answer in itself. If you keep records, then the slope of your equity curve will show how serious you are about trading.

你做交易是为了赚钱还是寻求刺激？不用你告诉我，只要给我看你做的交易记录我就知道了。没有详细的交易记录？那么，这本身就是一个答案。如果你坚持做交易记录，那么你的资金曲线的坡度就会说明你的认真态度。

Most people enter the markets for the money, but soon loose track of that goal and start chasing some private version of fun. The trading game is a lot more interesting than solitaire and feeds dreams of wealth and power. People trade to escape boredom or show off their smarts. There are as many neurotic reasons to trade as there are traders, but only one realistic one - to make more money than from riskless investments, such as Treasury bills.

大部分人进入市场是为了赚钱，但很快就失去了那个目标，转而去追逐一些个人的乐趣。交易游戏比玩单人纸牌有趣得多，它在你的梦中填满了财富和权力。人们交易是为了逃避无聊或者是展示自己的聪明才智。做交易的神经质的原因同做交易的人一样多，但只有一个是现实的原因——比零风险投资，如债券赚更多的钱。

Successful trading is based on 3 M’s: Mind, Method, and Money. Mind is trading psychology, Method is market analysis, and Money refers to risk management. This last M is your ultimate key to success. The slope of your equity curve, which you must draw as a part of your money management process, reflects the state of your mind as well as the quality of your method.

成功交易基于3个M：心态、方法和资金管理。心态指的是交易心理，方法指的是市场分析，资金管理指的是风险管理。这最后一个M 是成功的最关键因素。在你的资金管理过程中，必须要画出自己的资金曲线，它不仅会反映出你的心态，也会反映出你所用方法的质量。

Anyone can make money on a single trade or even several trades. Even in the casinos of Las Vegas you continuously hear the music of the jackpots. Coins pour from the slot machines, making a happy noise, but how many players go back to their rooms with more money than they came with? In the markets, almost anyone can make a good trade, but few can grow equity.

任何人在交易中都可能赚钱。甚至在拉斯维加斯的赌场里，你会不断听到赌博的声音。硬币像水一样从老虎机里淌出来，引起一阵欢快的噪音，但有多少玩家回到自己的房间时会比去赌场前带得钱多呢？在市场中，几乎每个人都可以做一笔好交易，但只有很少的人能让资金增长。

Money management is the craft of managing your trading capital. Some call it an art, others a science, but really it is a combination of both, with science predominating. The goal of money management is to accumulate equity by reducing losses on losing trades and maximizing gains on winning trades. When you cross the street after the “Walk”

sign lights up, you still glance right and left because some crazed driver may be barreling toward the crosswalk, sign or no sign. Whenever your trading system gives you a signal, money management becomes the equivalent of glancing right and left. Even the most beautiful trading system requires money management to make consistent profits.

资金管理就是管理你的资金的技能。有人把它叫做一种艺术，有人说是科学，实际上它是两者的一个组合，科学在其中占主导地位。资金管理的目标是通过减少失败的交易中的亏损和最大化赢利交易中的利润来累积资金。当你看到“行人”绿灯亮起后，穿越马路时，你仍然要左右看看是否有疯狂的司机不管信号灯的信号而横冲过来。无论何时你的交易系统给出一个交易信号，资金管理就像穿越时左右看看一样，即使最漂亮的交易系统也需要资金管理的保护才能持续赢利。

I once met a father and son team of successful money managers. The father began grooming his son for the business while the boy was still a teenager. On weekends he used to take him to the track and give his son $10 for the day. That was his lunch money and betting money. The father spent the day with his cronies, while the kid could come up and ask questions but never got another dollar. He had to make his money betting horses and manage his resources if he wanted to eat lunch that day. Learning to handicap horses (technical analysis), manage his stake (money management), and wait for the best odds (psychology) paid off a million-fold after the son joined his father in managing a hedge fund.

我曾经遇到父子二人为一组的成功的资金管理者。父亲在他的儿子十几岁时就开始培养他的商业才能。周末他常带他去赛马场，并给他10 元，作为那天他的午餐和赌本。父亲整天都与朋友们在一起，他的儿子如果有问题可以过来问他，但不会再得到额外的1 元钱。他必须自己通过赌马来赚钱，如果还想吃午餐的话，就得管好自己的钱。研究障碍赛马（技术分析），管理自己的赌注（资金管理），并且等待最佳机会（心态），在儿子加入他的父亲的对冲基金后赢利了一百万倍。

A good trading system gives you an edge in the market. To use a technical term, it provides a positive expectation over a long series of trials. A good system ensures that winning is more likely than losing over a long series of trades. If your system can do that, you need money management, but if you have no positive expectation, no amount of money management will save you from losing.

一个好的交易系统给了你一把在市场中战斗的利刃。要使用一个技术指标，在经过长期的系列试验后它能提供积极的期望值。一个好的系统能确保长期结算下来利润超过亏损。如果你的系统能做到这点，你还需要资金管理，但如果你没有积极的期望，没有任何资金管理会从亏损中拯救你。

For example, a roulette player has a negative expectation. A roulette wheel has 38 slots in the United States and 37 in Europe, but only 36 are in play, as the house “owns”

the remaining one or two. Since a slot represents roughly 2.7% of a wheel, over a period of time the house skims that much from each game, slowly bleeding players dry. There is a primitive money management system called a martingale that has players start with a minimum bet, usually $1, and double up after each loss, so that in theory, when they eventually win, they get back all they lost plus $1, and start with $1 again. Martingale does not work in real life because casinos limit maximum bets. Once your loss runs up to that limit, a martingale just hits its head on the ceiling and dies.

例如，轮盘赌（一种赌者打赌转动盘上旋转的小球将停止于盘上哪一个槽内的赌博游戏。）玩家的期望是负的。在美国一个轮盘赌轮有38条淘槽，在欧洲有37 条，但在玩的时候只有36条，赌场“拥有”剩余的1 条或2 条。一个槽约占一个赌轮的2.7%，经过一段时间后，赌场就在每轮游戏中都占有高的胜率，慢慢地把玩家榨干。有一种原始的资金管理系统叫做加倍下注，开始时玩家下只下最小的赌注，通常是1 元，在每次输掉后就加倍下注。于是在理论上，当他们最终赢的时候，他们就会赚回所有的损失加1 元，然后重新以1 元的赌注开始。加倍下注法在现实生活中不起作用，因为赌场限制了最大赌注。一旦你的损失达到那个限制，加倍下注法就彻底玩蛋了。

In blackjack, on the other hand, a very disciplined trader who follows a tested strategy and counts cards has a slight edge over the casino, on the order of 1 or 2 percent, sometimes higher. Here a good card counter needs money management to keep bets small on iffy hands and double up on strong hands.

另一方面，在21点游戏中，一个非常有纪律的玩家遵循曾经测试有效的策略，数牌能力会比赌场略占优势，约1%到2% ，有时更高一些。这时，一个优秀的玩家需要资金管理，在牌不好时下较小的注，而在牌好时加倍下注。

Once you have a trading system with a positive expectation, you must establish money management rules. Follow them as if your life depended on them, because it does. When we lose money, we die as traders.

一旦你有了有正期望值的交易系统，你必须制定资金管理原则。遵循这些原则，就好像你的生命是依靠它们一样，事实也是如此。当我们失败时，我们就像交易者一样消失。

Whatever percentage of capital you lose, you must make a greater percentage to come back. I used to carry a receipt from a car rental agency to illustrate this point. The receipt showed a charge of $70, followed by a 10% discount, and 10% tax. What was the bottom line? If you said $70, go back to the books! $70－10%=$63. $63＋10%=$69.30. If 10% is taken away and 10% added, you end up below the starting point. Losing equity is like falling into an ice cave - it’s easy to slide in but hard to claw your way out because the edges are slippery. What happens when a trader knocks his $10,000 account down to $6,600? He’s down 34% and must make 50% just to come back to even. How likely is it that a trader who just dropped a third of his equity will earn 50%? He’s at the bottom of an ice hole. He’ll either die or get a new lease on life from an outside source. The key question is whether he learns from his experience.

不管你损失的比例有多少，你都必须赚更多比例的钱来补偿。过去我常常带着一张汽车租赁公司的收据来证明这一点。该收据注明收费70元，打折10%，返税10%。那么结果是什么？如果你说是70 元，那么请再读一遍上文。70－10%=63，63＋10%=69.30。如果先减去10% ，两加上10%，最后的结果就低于初始值。亏损就像跌进一个冰窟——下滑是容易的，但很难再爬出来，因为冰窟的壁太光滑了。当一个交易者的账户从10000元下滑到6600元时，会发生什么呢？他的账户亏损了34%，而他必须再赢利50%才能重新回到10000元，一个刚刚亏损掉三分之一资金的交易者，想要赚50%，可能吗？他处在一个冰窟的底部，他或者就此死去，或者重新投入资金。关键问题是他是否能从失败中吸取教训。

Markets are about as soft as a gladiator fight. Life on the battle-field is measured in money. Everybody’s fighting to take it away from you - competitors, vendors, and brokers. Losing money is easy; making it is hard.

市场像一个柔软的角斗士场地。在这战斗中，生命是用金钱来计算的。每个人都在努力从你的身上掠夺金钱——竞争对手、商家和经纪人。亏钱很容易，但赚钱却很难。

Money management has two goals: survival and prosperity. The first priority is to survive, then to grind out steady gains, and finally, to make spectacular gains. Beginners tend to have those priorities reversed. They shoot for spectacular gains but never think about long-term survival. Putting survival first makes you focus on money management. Serious traders are always focused on minimizing losses and growing equity.

资金管理有两个目的：生存和发展。首先是生存，其次是努力保持稳定的收益，最后是获得巨大的收益。新手一般都把优先顺序搞反了。他们直奔巨大的收益而去，从未考虑过怎样长期生存。把生存放在第一位，就是要集中精力做好资金管理。严谨的交易者通常会把精力集中在损失最小化和资金增长上。

The most successful money manager I know keeps saying he’s afraid of ending up as a taxi driver. His engineering degree is out of date, he has no work experience outside the markets, and if he fails as a trader, all he can do is drive a cab. He’s made millions, but still does everything in his power to avoid losing money. He is one of the most disciplined people I know.

我认识的最成功的一个资金管理者，他总是说他害怕落得一个开出租车的下场。他的工程学学位已经过期，除交易之外他没有任何工作经验，如果他在交易中彻底失败了，唯一的出路就是去开出租车。他已经赚了数百万美元，但仍然竭尽全力避免亏损。他是我所认识的最有纪律的一个人。

NO MATH ILLITERATES

不要数学盲

Modern society makes it easy to live without counting. Most of us rarely count, having grown accustomed to calculators and digital screens on appliances. If you can add up the number of guests at a dinner party or figure out how many beers are left in a six-pack after you have drunk two, you’re in good shape. It’s easy to go through life with hardly any arithmetic. Not so in the markets.

在现代社会中，你不用算术也可以很容易生活。我们中的大部分人很少做计算，都已经习惯了计算器和设备上的数字显示屏。如果你能在晚会上算出客人的总数，或者算出六层啤酒你们喝了两层后还剩几层，那么你的状态是不错的。没有任何数学知识也照样可以过活。但在市场中却不是这样。

Trading is a numbers game. If you cannot count, you cannot trade. You do not need calculus or algebra, but you must be on easy terms with basic math - adding, subtracting, multiplying, and dividing. In addition, you need to calculate percentages and fractions and round off numbers in order to count fast. Also, you must be at ease with the concept of probability. This may sound simple, but it never ceases to amaze me how poorly and slowly most beginners count. All good traders are on easy terms with math. They are practical and sharp people who quickly calculate risks, results, and odds.

交易是一种数字游戏。如果你不会算术，你就不会交易。你不需要知道微积分或高等代数，但你必须熟悉基本的算术——加、减、乘、除。另外，你需要计算百分比和分数，并且为了算得快一些，你需要知道四舍五入。当然，你还必须理解可能性的概念。这听起来可能很简单，但大部分新手的算术水平之差和计算速度之慢却常会令我吃惊。所有优秀的交易者对于算术都很精通。他们沉着务实，反应敏捷，可以迅速计算风险、结果和机率。

What if you’re a product of modern education and need a calculator to subtract 26.75 from 183.5 or figure out 15% of 320? You need to educate yourself. You have to drill yourself in arithmetic. One of the easiest ways to do so is by counting change when you go shopping. Estimate the total price. Once you give money to a cashier, calculate how much change you’ll need. Figure out sales tax in your head. Keep practicing, keep stepping out of the comfortable shell of modern consumer society where counting isn’t necessary. Read a couple of popular books on the theory of probability.

如果你是一个现代教育的产品，需要计算器来计算183.5减26.75 或者320的15%之类的结果，那会如何呢？你需要自学。你必须在数学方面训练自己。最简单的方法之一是当你去商店买东西时，心算找零。估算总价。当你把钱递给收银员时，心算一下找零是多少。在自己的头脑中算一下营业税。坚持练习，坚持走出现代社会客户不需要计算的安逸的外壳。读一两本有关可能性理论的流行书。

Troublesome? Yes. Time consuming? For sure. Learning to count on your feet is not entertaining, but it’ll help you succeed in trading.

有点麻烦吧？是的。要花一些时间吧？肯定要花时间。学习心算不是娱乐，但它可以帮助你在交易中成功。

How wide is the channel? What is the ratio of the distances to your stop-loss and the profit target? If you want to risk no more than 1% of your account and the stop is 1.25 points away, how many shares may you buy? These and similar questions go to the heart of successful trading. Being able to answer them on the fly gives you a real advantage over the crowd of innumerate amateurs.

通道有多宽？止损点和赢利目标的比例是多少？如果你想拿自己账户的1%去冒险，且止损点距当前价位1.25 点，那么你应该买多少股？这些以及其它类似的问题就是成功交易的关键所在。能够飞速地回答这些问题，将使你获得一个位于无数业余选手人群之上的优势。

BUSINESSMAN’S RISK VS. LOSS

生意人的风险对亏损

Remember our example of a small businessman who ran a fruit and vegetable stand, selling several crates each day? What if his wholesaler offered him a crate of some new exotic fruit? He could make money on it, but if locals did not like the fruit and it rotted, a single crate would not hurt his business. It is a normal businessman’s risk.

还记得我们前面讲过的例子吗？一个摆水果和蔬菜摊位的小生意人，每天能卖几框果蔬。如果他的批发商卖给他一框新鲜的珍奇水果呢？他可能会因此赚钱，但如果当地人不喜欢那种水果以至于那框水果全部坏掉的话，一框水果不会对他的买卖造成很大的伤害。那是一种正常的商业风险。

Now imagine he bought a tractor-trailer of that fruit at a super low price. If it sold, he could make a quick killing, but if that load rotted on him, it would hurt his business and could endanger his survival. A crate presented an acceptable risk, but a truckload was a rotten risk. The difference between a businessman’s risk and a loss is its size relative to the size of your account.

现在想象一下，他以极低的价格买了一卡车那种水果。如果他把它们都卖掉了，他就可以大赚一笔，但如果没有卖掉而是坏掉了，就会严重伤害到他的生意，可能使他无法做下去了。一框代表着一个可以接受的风险，但一卡车就是一个致命的风险。生意人的风险和亏损和你的风险和亏损差别是账户的大小。

A businessman’s risk exposes you to normal equity fluctuation, but a loss threatens your prosperity and survival. You must draw a line between them and never cross it. Drawing that line is a key task of money management.

生意人的风险和亏损说明了你的账户处于正常的资金波动中，但一个亏损就会威胁到你的生存与发展。你必须在二者之间画一条线，永远不要跨过那条线。画那条线是资金管理的一项关键任务。

Whenever you buy a stock and place a stop under it, you limit your dollar risk per share. Money management rules limit your total risk on any trade as a whole, allowing you to risk only a small percentage of your account. If you know your maximum permitted risk per trade as well as your risk per share or contract, it is a matter of simple arithmetic to calculate how many shares or contracts you may trade.

无论你什么时候买进一只股票并在下面设置一个止损，你都要限制每股的风险值。资全管理原则作为一个整体，限制你在任何交易中的总风险，使你的账户中只有比例很小的一部分处于风险中。如果你知道每笔交易，以及每股或每份合约你的最大允许风险，那么计算你应该交易多少股或多少份合约就是一个简单的算术问题了。

Money management rules are essential for your survival and success. Few traders have the discipline to follow them. Promises are easy to make while reading a book, but wait until you are in front of the screen. “This time is different, it’s free money, I’ll give this trade a little extra room.” The market seduces traders into breaking their rules. Will you follow yours?

资金管理原则对于你的生存和成功都是很关键的。很少有交易者能够严格遵守它们。在读一本书时，许诺是很容易的，但你坐在屏幕前就不一样了。“这次不同，这是闲置的资金，我要给这次交易一点额外的收入。”市场引诱交易者们打破自己的原则。你会遵守自己的原则吗？

I was recently invited to chair a panel on market psychology at a gathering of money managers. One of my panelists had nearly a billion dollars under management. A middle aged man, he started in business in his 20s, while working for a naval consulting firm after graduate school. Bored with his job, he designed a trading system but did not have enough money to trade it because it required a minimum of $200,000. “I had to go to other people,”

he said, “and ask them for money. Once I explained to them what I was going to do and they gave me money, I had to stick to my system. It would have been unconscionable to deviate from it. My poverty worked for me.” Poverty and integrity.

最近我受邀在一个基金经理聚会上做一个市场心理学的主持。我的一个小组成员管理的资金接近十亿。他是一个中年人，从20 多岁时开始经商，从学校毕业后就在一个海洋咨询公司工作。厌倦了自己的工作以后，他设计了一个交易系统。但当时没有足够的资金交易，因为那最少需要200000元。“我不得不去找别人，”他说，“向他们借些钱。我向他们解释我要做什么，一旦他们把钱给我，我就坚持遵守我的系统。偏离它就是非常不合理的。我的贫困帮助了我。”贫困和正直。

If you want to trade, you have to accept risks. A nitpicker, obsessing over dimes, is too stiff to place orders. While you accept risks, you may not accept losses. What is the definition of a loss?

如果你想交易，就必须承担风险。一个连一毛钱都舍不得亏的人，因太过拘谨而不能下单。虽然你愿意接受风险，但你不愿意接受亏损。亏损的定义是什么呢？

A loss is a violation of the percentage rules - the 2% and the 6% Rules.

亏损就是违反了2%原则和6%原则。

Markets kill traders in one of two ways. If your equity is your life, a market can snap it with a single shark bite, a disastrous loss that effectively takes you out of the game. It can also kill like a pack of piranhas, with a series of bites, none of which is lethal alone but which together strip an account to the bone. These two money management rules are designed to protect you from the sharks and the piranhas.

市场淘汰交易者的方式有两种。如果你的资金是你的生命，市场可能像鲨鱼一样一口把它吞掉，一次惨重的损失就可以把你淘汰出局。市场也可能像食人鱼一样一口一口地把你咬死，每一口可能都不致命，但一直咬下去就会使你成为一堆白骨。下面两种资金管理原则就是用来帮助你防范鲨鱼和食人鱼的。

THE 2% SOLUTION - PROTECTION FROM SHARKS

2%解决方案——防鲨网

Ugly losses stick like sore thumbs out of most accounts. Traders who review their records usually find that a single terrible loss or a short string of bad losses did most of the damage. Had they cut their losses sooner, their bottom line would have been much higher. Traders dream of profits but often freeze like deer in the headlights when a losing trade hits them. They need rules that tell them when to jump out of harm’s way instead of waiting and praying for the market to turn.

痛苦的亏损那么显而易见。交易者在复习他们的交易记录时，常常会发现是一次可怕的亏损或者是一连串小亏损对他们造成了最大的伤害。要是他们抢先止损，他们的账户底线会高得多。交易者们梦想赢利，但是当亏损击中他们时，往往就不知所措了。他们需要原则来提醒自己何时应该跳出失利的交易，而不是盲目地等待和祈祷市场反转。

Good market analysis alone will not make you a winner. The ability to find good trades will not guarantee success. No amount of research will do you any good unless you protect yourself from the sharks. I’ve seen traders make 20, 30, and once even 50 profitable trades in a row, and still end up losing money. When you’re on a winning streak, it’s easy to feel you’ve figured out the game. Then a disastrous loss wipes out all profits and tears into your equity. You need the shark repellent of good money management.

仅有好的市场分析，也不能使你成为赢家。能找到好交易并不能保证成功。大量的研究不会给你带来任何好处，除非你可以保护自己不受鲨鱼的突袭。我曾经看过交易者连续做了20、30甚至50 笔交易，但仍以亏损告终。当你连续赢利时，还容易认为自己已经了解了这种游戏。然后，一次惨重的亏损扫光了你所有的利润，摧毁了你的账户。你需要可以击退鳖鱼的有效的资金管理。

A good system gives you an edge in the long run, but there is a great deal of randomness in the markets, and any single trade is close to a toss-up. A good trader expects to be profitable by the end of the year, but ask him whether he’ll make money on his next trade and he’ll honestly say he doesn’t know. He uses stops to prevent losing trades from hurting his account.

从长远来看，一套优秀的系统会给你带来一定的优势，但市场中充满了大量的随机性，任何单笔交易的成败都是难以预料的。优秀的交易者期待在年终时赢利，但问他下一次交易时是否会赚钱，他会诚实地回答：不知道。他利用止损来防止亏损的交易，避免伤害到自己的账户。

Technical analysis helps you decide where to place a stop, limiting your loss per share. Money management rules help you protect your account as a whole. The single most important rule is to limit your loss on any trade to a small fraction of your account.

技术分析帮助你决定在何处止损，以限制你每股的损失。资金管理原则帮助你保护整个账户。一个最重要的原则是每次交易的损失限制到只占你账户的一小部分。

Limit your loss on any trade to 2% of equity in your trading account.

限制每笔交易的损失是你账户净资金的2%。

The 2% Rule refers only to your trading account. It doesn’t include your savings, equity in your house, retirement account, or money in the Christmas club. Your trading capital is the money you have dedicated to trading. This is your true risk capital, your equity in the trading enterprise. It includes cash and cash equivalents in the account, plus today’s market value of all open positions. Your system should make you money, while the 2% Rule lets you survive the inevitable drawdowns.

2%原则仅指你的交易账户。它不包括你的存款、家中的财产、退休金账户或者圣诞储蓄。你的交易资金指的是决定用于交易的资金。这是你真正的风险资金，你在证券公司的资金。它包括账户中的现金和保证金，以及今天仓位的市场价值。你的系统应该为你赚钱，而2%原则让你从不可避免的损失中幸存。

Suppose you’re trading a $50,000 account. You want to buy XYZ stock, currently trading at $20. Your profit target is $26, with a stop at $18. How many shares of XYZ you are allowed to buy? Two percent of $50,000 is $1,000, the maximum risk you may accept. Buying at $20 and putting a stop at $18 means you’ll risk $2 per share. Divide the maximum acceptable risk by the risk per share to find how many shares you may buy. Dividing $1,000 by $2 gives you 500 shares. This is the maximum number, in theory. In practice, it has to be lower because you must pay commissions and be prepared to be hit by slippage, all of which must fit under the 2% limit. So, 400 rather than 500 shares is the upper limit for this trade.

假设你的交易账户有50000元。你想买XYZ 股票，当前市价为20元。你的赢利目标是26 元，止损设在18元。那么你可以买多少股XYZ呢？50000元的2%是1000元，也就是你可以接受的最大风险。在20元买进，并在18元设置止损，那么你的每股风险为2元。用最大可接受风险除以每股风险，就得到你可以购买的股数。1000元除以2元，结果为500股。这就是理论上的最大股数。实际上，那个数目应该更低一些，因为你必须支付佣金和准备应付滑点亏损的影响，所以这些费用加起来都不得超过2%的限制。故是400 股，而不是500 股，就是你的交易上限。

I’ve noticed a curious difference in how people react to the 2% Rule. Poor beginners think this number is too low. Someone asked me at a recent conference whether the 2% Rule could be increased for small accounts. I answered that when he goes bungee jumping, it doesn’t pay to extend the cord.

我已经注意到人们对2%原则的反应有非常奇怪的差别。可怜的新手认为这个数字太小。在最近一次研讨会上，有人问我对于小账户来说，2%原则是不是可以大一点。我回答说，当他去蹦极的时候，延长绳子没有什么好处。

Professionals, on the other hand, often say 2% is too high and they try to risk less. A very successful hedge fund manager recently told me that his project for the next six months was to increase his trading size. He never risked more than 0.5% of equity on a trade - and was going to teach himself to risk 1%! Good traders tend to stay well below the 2% limit. Whenever amateurs and professionals are on the opposite sides of an argument, you know which side to choose. Try to risk less than 2% - it is simply the maximum level.

专业交易者则相反，他们常说2%太高了，他们努力使风险更低一些。一位非常成功的对冲基金经理最近告诉我，他计划在接下来的六个月中增加他的仓位。他从未在单笔交易中使风险超过净资金的0.5%——而现在自己努力把风险比例上升到1%。优秀的交易者安于2%限制之下。无论何时只要业余选手和专业交易者的意见相反，你心里应该明白谁是对的。尽量使风险低于2%——这就是最高风险。

Whenever you look at a potential trade, check whether a logical stop on a round lot or a single contract would keep you on the right side of the 2% Rule. If it would put more money at risk, pass that trade.

无论何时进行交易，都要检查所有或单份合约的逻辑止损是否满足2%原则。如果哪次交易要求有更高的风险，那么就放弃交易。

Measure your account equity on the first of each month. If you start the month with $100,000 in your account, the 2% Rule allows you to risk a maximum of $2,000 per trade. If you have a good month and your equity rises to $105,000, then your 2% limit for the next month is - how much? Quick! Remember, a good trader can count! If you have $105,000 in your account, the 2% Rule allows you to risk $2,100 and trade a slightly bigger size. If, on the other hand, you have a bad month and your equity falls to $95,000, the 2% Rule sets your maximum permitted risk at $1,900 per trade for the following month. The 2% Rule lets you expand when you are ahead and forces you to pull in your horns when you do poorly; it links your trading size to your performance. What if you have several trading accounts, for example, one for stocks and another for futures? In that case, apply the 2% Rule to each account separately.

在每月初，都要检查你的账户净资金。如果起始月时你的账户中有100000元，那么2%原则允许你每次交易冒2000元的风险。如果上月赢利，净资金上升到105000元，那么在下个月你的2%限制将是多少钱？快点回答，记住，要做一名优秀的交易者，算术能力一定要好！如果你的账户中有105000元，2%原则将允许你冒2100元的风险，可以交易稍多一点的金额。反之，如果你上月亏损，净资金降到95000 元，2%原则将限制你在下月交易中所冒风险的金额为1900元。当你表现优异时，2%原则允许你扩大自己的交易金额，而当你表现欠佳时，它会强制你减少交易金额，这使得你的交易金额与自己的表现联系在一起。如果你有好几个交易账户时该怎么做呢？比如，你用一个账户做股票，另一个账户做期货。在那种情况下，要在每个账户中分别使用2%原则。

Futures - OK to Trade Spreadsheet

期货市场选择表

Imagine two traders, Mr. Hare and Mr. Turtle, both with $50,000 accounts, who are looking at two futures markets - S&P 500 and corn. The agile Mr. Hare notices that the average daily range in the S&P is about 5 points, worth $250 each. The daily range in corn is about 5 cents, worth $50 each. He quickly figures that if he catches just a half of a day’s range, he’ll make over $500 per contract in the S&P, whereas the same level of skill will bring him just a little over $100 in corn. Mr. Hare calls his broker and buys two contracts of the S&P.

想象一下有两个交易者，兔子先生和乌龟先生，各有一个50000元的账户，他们正在观察两个期货市场——标准普尔和玉米。机敏的兔子先生注意到标准普尔的平均日价格区间约5 点，每份合约的价格为250元。玉米的平均日价格区间为5分，每份合约为50元。他很快就得出结论。如果他只能抓住日价格区间的一半，那么在标准普尔每份合约可以赚500元，而使用同样水平的技巧，在玉米中只能赚100元多一点。兔子先生打电话给他的经纪人，要求买两份标准普尔合约。

The cautious Mr. Turtle has a different arithmetic. He begins by setting the maximum risk in his account at 2% or $1,000. Trading the S&P, moving over $1,000 a day with such a small account, is like grabbing a very large tiger by a very short tail. If, on the other hand, he trades corn, he’ll have a lot more staying power. That tiger is smaller and has a longer tail, which he can wrap around his wrist. Mr. Turtle buys a contract of corn. Who is more likely to win in the long run, Mr. Hare or Mr. Turtle?

但谨慎的乌龟先生却有着不同的算法。首先，他使用2%原则计算出自己账户的最大可承受风险资金1000元。在标准普尔中，在这样的小账户，一天只动用1000元，就像去抓一只个头非常大，但尾巴非常短的老虎一样。另一方面，如果他交易玉米，他就有更大的生存能力。那只老虎要小一些，而且有一条可以缠在腰上的长尾巴。乌龟先生买了一份玉米的合约。那么在兔子先生和乌龟先生中，谁最终将取得胜利呢？

To find out which futures markets you may or may not trade, measure your equity against the recent level of market noise. Begin by calculating 2% of your account. Measure the level of noise with the SafeZone indicator, calculate its 22-day EMA, and translate that into dollars. Do not trade any market whose average noise level is more than 1% of your equity. If you follow this rule, you’ll trade relatively sedate markets where you can safely place your stops. Why 1% and not 2%? Because your 2% stop will have to be more than the average noise level away from the market.

在期货市场中选择期货商品时，比较一下你的资金和近期的市场波动水平。首先计算出你的账户资金的2%。使用安全区域指标度量波动水平，计算出其22日均线，并将结果化为金额。如果平均波动水平高于你账户资金的1%，就不要交易那只期货。如果你遵守这条原则，你所选择的市场相对来说是比较稳定的，可以比较安全地设置止损。为什么是1%，而不早2%呢？因为在市场中，你的2%止损必须大于平均波动水平。

The first column in the spreadsheet in Table 7.1 lists the market, the second the value of one contract, the third the current SafeZone indicator, and the fourth multiplies SafeZone by two. The fifth column lists 2% of the account value, in this case $30,000. The last column compares the value of SafeZone multiplied by two to 2% of the account. If the latter is greater than the former, that market is OK to trade.

表7.1的第一列是期货市场，第二列是每份合约的价格，第三列是当前的安全区域，第四列是用安全区域指标乘以2所得结果。第五列是账户资金的2% ，此处账户资金为30000元。最后一列比较两倍的安全区域指标与账户资金2%。如果后者大于前者，那个市场就适合交易。

The values in Table 7.1 are current as this is being written, but have to be updated monthly because volatility changes and SafeZone with it. The exchanges occasionally modify contracts and change unit values. Use this table only as an example and a starting point. Do your homework, plug in the current numbers, and find out which contracts you may or may not trade.

表7.1中的数据，在我写作时的当前值，因为波动性和安全区域都在不断变化，所以你在使用时，必须每月更新。交易所有时会修改合约，并更改每份合约的价格。这个表格只是作为一个例子。供你开始选择期货市场时参考。使用时改为最新数据，并找出哪些期货市场适合你交易。

If you cannot afford to trade a certain market, you can still download it, do your homework, and paper trade it as if you were doing it with real money. This will prepare you for the day when your account grows big enough or the market grows quiet enough for you to jump in.

如果你没有足够的资金交易某个期货市场，你仍然可以下载它，做好准备工作，并进行模拟交易，就像真实的交易一样。这样，当你的账户足够大或某个期货市场变得足够平静时，就可以很有准备地进入交易了。

Table 7.1 OK to Trade Spreadsheet

表7.1 期货市场选择表

安全区域

2倍安全区域

30000的2%

是否交易

$1,000

0.33

$660

$600

$2,500

0.09

$450

$600

标准普尔

$250

10.00

$5,000

$600

瑞士法郎

$1,250

0.40

$1,000

$600

$1,250

0.38

$950

$600

德国马克

$1,250

0.26

$650

$600

$1,000

0.21

$420

$600

$1,120

0.11

$246

$600

$500

0.63

$630

$600

$375

1.70

$1,275

$600

24.00

$480